Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:40:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
50 0x5073…2770 other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$232 (+37%) realized +$233 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +33% what you keep after slip
Net edge+33%after slip
Net WR87%break-even
Win rate87%13W / 2L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$131
sports 7% +$70
crypto 5% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +87%
net ROI/market (all)+38.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +53.2% +38.6% 87% 87% +28.8%
≤30d 15 +53.2% +38.6% 87% 87% +28.8%
≤90d 15 +53.2% +38.6% 87% 87% +28.8%
all 15 +53.2% +38.6% 87% 87% +28.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +38.6% 87% +28.8%
10% +25.4% 73% +16.5%
15% +13.3% 73% +5.2%
20% +2.1% 53% -5.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +53% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +62% → late +46% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$10 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.34 per $1 lost it wins $12.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized+$233
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses13 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)15 / 18
History coverage7d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $64 +$36 +56%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$13 +44%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $9 +$9 +109%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$6 -42%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $37 +$61 +165%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $76 −$14 -18%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $45 +$5 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $32 +$13 +42%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $88 +$43 +49%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $32 +$24 +73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $58 +$7 +11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $11 +$9 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $12 +$7 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $11 +$12 +105%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $13 +$7 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $30 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $31 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 66¢ $99 14h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 34¢ $17 14h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $47 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 24h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 39h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 42¢ $9 39h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $15 42h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $37 43h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 58¢ $47 43h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 58¢ $15 43h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $76 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $45 47h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $32 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $56 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $32 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $33 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 90¢ $39 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $12 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $11 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $11 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $13 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.75 · official $89.75 (match) · 37 history records