Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:44:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5076…905b crypto 54 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$30 (+1%) realized +$55 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate45%24W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day43.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -8.4% -17.2% 45% 38% -12.3%
≤30d 53 -8.4% -17.2% 45% 38% -12.3%
≤90d 53 -8.4% -17.2% 45% 38% -12.3%
all 53 -8.4% -17.2% 45% 38% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.2% 38% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 25% -20.7%
15% -32.3% 15% -28.3%
20% -39.0% 9% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.6 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$13 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$55
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses24 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage1d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day43.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Down 50¢ 94¢ $15 $28 +$13 (+89%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Up 51¢ 6¢ $28 $3 −$25 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $43 +$12 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $69 +$13 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$22 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$16 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $43 +$13 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $66 −$15 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$12 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$15 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $67 −$7 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$8 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $42 −$12 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$10 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $36 −$6 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$16 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $37 −$7 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$6 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$7 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$15 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $55 −$25 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $45 +$10 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $43 −$13 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$10 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $62 +$20 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $44 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $34 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$21 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $34 −$4 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$10 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $270 −$40 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $35 −$15 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$15 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $38 −$23 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $44 +$11 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$15 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$15 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$13 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $23 +$33 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $19 +$82 +422%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $14 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $13 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $15 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $39 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $16 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $19 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $13 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $13 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.40 · official $31.91 (match) · 159 history records