Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:07:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5.0

score

50 0x5077…badc sports 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 234d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$31,229 (+23%) realized +$31,195 · open +$34

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip

Net edge+16%after slip

Net WR68%break-even

Win rate68%15W / 7L

Whale WR50%big bets

Drawdown56%max

Avg bet$5,518per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Fees−$98est.

Kalshi-fit88%portable

Net worth$2,909now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$900

7 days−$1,062

14 days−$1,062

30 days−$6,617

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +68%

net ROI/market (all)+28.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-3.4%	-12.6%	67%	67%	-37.0%
≤30d	4	-27.5%	-34.4%	50%	50%	-75.7%
≤90d	4	-27.5%	-34.4%	50%	50%	-75.7%
all	22	+42.0%	+28.5%	68%	68%	+11.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~10%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+28.5%	68%	+11.4%
10% ← realistic here	+16.2%	64%	+0.8%
15%	+5.0%	55%	-9.0%
20%	-5.3%	50%	-17.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -73% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +42% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 50% (≥$7,793) neutral

Persistence

early +103% → late -19% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$5,886 vs −$8,149 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage

Net worth$2,909

Realized+$31,195

Unrealized+$34

Win rate (resolved)68%

Wins / losses15 / 7

Whale WR (big bets)50%

Est. fees paid−$98

Open positions3

Markets (closed)22 / 25

History coverage234d

Avg bet$5,518

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown56%

Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	68¢	69¢	$1,700	$1,737	+$37 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	6¢	$671	$780	+$109 (+16%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$504	$391	−$113 (-22%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5	Jun 21	$396	+$66	+17%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$1,139	+$834	+73%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$1,996	−$1,962	-98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	May 30	$5,638	−$5,555	-98%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan	Jan 24	$1,998	+$601	+30%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)	Nov 09	$22,000	−$22,000	-100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner	Nov 09	$10,000	−$10,000	-100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner	Nov 09	$13,600	+$15,650	+115%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner	Nov 09	$10,000	+$15,252	+152%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner	Nov 09	$7,793	−$7,793	-100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner	Nov 09	$5,915	−$5,915	-100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner	Nov 02	$9,896	+$5,551	+56%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner	Nov 01	$3,816	−$3,816	-100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5)	Nov 01	$4,626	+$1,226	+26%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner	Nov 01	$4,300	+$10,389	+242%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner	Nov 01	$2,932	+$8,184	+279%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5)	Oct 31	$4,900	+$4,468	+91%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 3 Winner	Oct 31	$5,589	+$6,238	+112%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 2 Winner	Oct 31	$4,875	+$3,719	+76%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 1 Winner	Oct 31	$4,900	+$4,923	+100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner	Oct 30	$4,296	+$1,836	+43%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner	Oct 30	$4,435	+$9,350	+211%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5	SELL Under	47¢	$463	1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	39¢	$199	1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	39¢	$39	1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	39¢	$159	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$1,700	6h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$206	25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	57¢	$1,139	26h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$3	5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$482	5d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$519	5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	38¢	$191	5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	41¢	$279	5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	42¢	$1,526	5d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	50¢	$563	22d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	50¢	$5,075	22d
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan	BUY Japan	77¢	$1,998	148d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner	SELL KT Rolster	100¢	$29,146	224d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)	BUY KT Rolster	41¢	$8,000	224d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)	BUY KT Rolster	64¢	$500	224d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)	BUY KT Rolster	65¢	$500	224d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)	BUY KT Rolster	67¢	$1,000	224d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)	BUY KT Rolster	69¢	$2,000	224d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)	BUY KT Rolster	65¢	$10,000	224d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner	BUY KT Rolster	37¢	$1,000	224d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner	BUY KT Rolster	51¢	$1,000	224d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner	BUY KT Rolster	53¢	$1,000	224d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner	BUY KT Rolster	44¢	$356	224d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner	SELL KT Rolster	41¢	$104	224d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner	SELL KT Rolster	100¢	$25,252	224d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner	BUY KT Rolster	44¢	$78	224d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,908.75 · official $2,909.00 (match) · 101 history records