Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:18:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

50 0x5078…bd7a other 9 markets active 24h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized −$16 · open +$21

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip

Net edge-100%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$70per market

Trades / day5.1pace

Kalshi-fit11%portable

Net worth$599now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-100.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤90d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
all	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
10%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
15%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
20%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -100% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$15 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$599

Realized−$16

Unrealized+$21

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 1

Open positions8

Markets (closed)1 / 9

History coverage2d

Avg bet$70

Trades / day5.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 8 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	14¢	14¢	$155	$153	−$2 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	7¢	8¢	$100	$115	+$15 (+15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	13¢	15¢	$100	$114	+$14 (+14%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	12¢	11¢	$100	$86	−$14 (-14%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	6¢	$60	$67	+$7 (+11%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$38	$40	+$1 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	19¢	19¢	$20	$20	+$0 (+0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	5¢	$5	$4	−$1 (-13%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$16	−$15	-94%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$30	23h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$43	23h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	12¢	$107	26h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	5¢	$16	26h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$11	27h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$21	27h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	19¢	$21	27h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	14¢	$53	27h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$107	2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$107	2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	14¢	$112	3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$5	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $598.99 · official $602.06 (match) · 15 history records