trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -25.0% | -32.1% | 50% | 50% | -31.8% |
| ≤30d | 3 | -11.3% | -19.8% | 67% | 67% | -24.5% |
| ≤90d | 3 | -11.3% | -19.8% | 67% | 67% | -24.5% |
| all | 18 | +24.3% | +12.5% | 61% | 61% | -7.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +12.5% | 61% | -7.9% |
| 10% | +1.7% | 50% | -16.7% |
| 15% | -8.1% | 50% | -24.8% |
| 20% | -17.1% | 39% | -32.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 13¢ | $191 | $225 | +$34 (+18%) |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | Yes | 57¢ | 56¢ | $100 | $99 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? | Yes | 58¢ | 50¢ | $100 | $85 | −$15 (-15%) |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? | Yes | 20¢ | 12¢ | $100 | $58 | −$42 (-42%) |
| Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? | Yes | 28¢ | 28¢ | $50 | $49 | −$1 (-2%) |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | 3¢ | 1¢ | $50 | $22 | −$28 (-56%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $201 | −$200 | -99% |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 16 | $202 | +$101 | +50% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Jun 01 | $100 | +$16 | +16% |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? | Oct 31 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| US bank failure by November 30? | Oct 30 | $50 | −$17 | -34% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in October? | Oct 26 | $246 | +$47 | +19% |
| Will Tottenham win on 2025-10-19? | Oct 19 | $100 | −$27 | -27% |
| Ethereum ETF Flows on October 17? | Oct 17 | $100 | +$64 | +64% |
| Greta Thunberg arrested by September 30? | Oct 03 | $100 | +$87 | +87% |
| Will Ethereum close above $3600 on July 31? | Jul 31 | $210 | +$104 | +50% |
| Ethereum above $3,400 on December 27? | Dec 25 | $500 | −$500 | -100% |
| Germany confidence vote in 2024? | Dec 24 | $120 | +$71 | +59% |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,500 in November? | Dec 24 | $90 | +$106 | +117% |
| Will $ETH hit $2000 or $4000 first? | Dec 24 | $200 | +$123 | +61% |
| Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? | Nov 09 | $65 | −$65 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 09 | $100 | +$59 | +59% |
| Ethereum above $3,500 on July 26? | Jul 27 | $30 | −$30 | -100% |
| Will Spain win the 2024 Euros? | Jul 15 | $50 | +$208 | +417% |