Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:30:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x507b…0742 other 380 markets active 0h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,350 (-5%) realized −$1,881 · open −$2,469
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate73%256W / 94L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$3,307now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$289
14 days−$231
30 days+$870
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% −$2,868
finance 22% +$754
other 22% −$3,403
politics 12% +$6
sports 8% −$16
economics 4% +$936
crypto 0% +$7
weather 0% +$20
tech 0% −$4
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -14.4% -22.5% 64% 20% -12.8%
≤30d 76 -3.2% -12.4% 72% 29% -7.3%
≤90d 244 -10.4% -18.9% 66% 29% -12.2%
all 350 -2.7% -12.0% 73% 34% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 34% -11.9%
10% -20.4% 15% -20.3%
15% -28.1% 7% -28.0%
20% -35.1% 4% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$72 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$3,307
Realized−$1,881
Unrealized−$2,469
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses256 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions30
Markets (closed)350 / 380
History coverage139d
Avg bet$229
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 350 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? No 96¢ 96¢ $534 $537 +$3 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 83¢ 78¢ $415 $392 −$22 (-5%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Over 92¢ 92¢ $230 $231 +$1 (+1%)
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Yes 69¢ 56¢ $241 $194 −$47 (-19%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $190 $190 −$0 (-0%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 86¢ 88¢ $172 $176 +$4 (+2%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 84¢ $158 $169 +$11 (+7%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 85¢ 84¢ $170 $167 −$3 (-2%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $132 $133 +$1 (+1%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 90¢ 68¢ $144 $110 −$34 (-24%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? No 92¢ 82¢ $120 $108 −$12 (-10%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Over 95¢ 100¢ $95 $100 +$5 (+5%)
Will DR Congo reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 87¢ $95 $93 −$2 (-2%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 77¢ $80 $77 −$3 (-4%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 74¢ $70 $74 +$4 (+6%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 66¢ $79 $72 −$7 (-9%)
Will Canada be the worst-placed host nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 66¢ $62 $66 +$4 (+7%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $56 $56 +$0 (+0%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 53¢ $57 $53 −$4 (-7%)
Will Jordan be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 79¢ 92¢ $39 $46 +$6 (+16%)
Will Tunisia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? No 92¢ 89¢ $46 $44 −$2 (-3%)
Will Austria be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup? No 93¢ 76¢ $35 $29 −$6 (-18%)
Will Jordan be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup? No 93¢ 52¢ $47 $26 −$20 (-44%)
Will Saudi Arabia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 89¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 17 $348 +$40 +12%
Will Argentina be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 17 $24 $0 +2%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $81 −$81 -99%
Spread: Austria (-3.5) Jun 17 $46 +$4 +8%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $192 +$8 +4%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $92 −$1 -2%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $187 +$32 +17%
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 16 $118 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 16 $144 +$15 +10%
Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 16 $848 $0 -0%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J Jun 15 $32 −$2 -5%
Will Pete Hegseth sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $96 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $470 +$10 +2%
Nothing Ever Happens: June Jun 15 $135 +$8 +6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 15 $65 +$4 +6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 15 $150 +$44 +30%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Jun 14 $1,372 +$193 +14%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? Jun 13 $500 +$19 +4%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $92 +$16 +17%
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw Jun 11 $59 +$4 +6%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $376 −$376 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 11 $2,237 +$188 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $328 −$328 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Jun 08 $181 −$4 -2%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $727 −$118 -16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 08 $1,350 +$32 +2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $51 −$11 -22%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 15? Jun 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $254 −$3 -1%
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire Jun 06 $47 +$53 +113%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $60 +$40 +67%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $1,473 +$57 +4%
Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? Jun 04 $4 +$1 +39%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $85 +$15 +18%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $89 +$11 +12%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 03 $190 +$10 +5%
Chicago Sky vs. Washington Mystics Jun 03 $181 +$19 +11%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $174 −$71 -41%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $376 +$24 +6%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 02 $77 +$23 +31%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,274 +$112 +5%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $2,786 +$89 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 29 $2,254 +$307 +14%
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 20 be at le May 29 $20 $0 +2%
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 20 be betwe May 29 $241 −$7 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $284 +$19 +7%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 28 $280 +$20 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $1,008 +$88 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 97¢ $388 6m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $92 28m
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $115 39m
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 39m
Will Argentina be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $25 41m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $92 1h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $56 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $81 1h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 86¢ $438 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $9 2h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $121 12h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $46 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $95 13h
Will Austria be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 BUY No 93¢ $35 13h
Will Jordan be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 W BUY No 93¢ $47 13h
Will Jordan be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $0 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 SELL Under 91¢ $91 14h
Spread: Austria (-3.5) BUY Jordan 92¢ $46 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $192 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 BUY Under 92¢ $62 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 BUY Under 92¢ $30 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $415 14h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 88¢ $133 15h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 86¢ $165 17h
Will Jordan be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $36 18h
Will Jordan be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 18h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Algeria 83¢ $42 18h
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 96¢ $54 18h
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 57¢ $58 18h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 86¢ $7 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,306.79 · official $3,308.76 (match) · 1361 history records