Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:42:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x507c…85ef crypto 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (102 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$9,779 (-14%) realized −$9,781 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%11W / 12L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,815per market
Trades / day102.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,308now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$11,523
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (102 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -15.0% -23.1% 48% 48% -25.5%
≤30d 23 -15.0% -23.1% 48% 48% -25.5%
≤90d 23 -15.0% -23.1% 48% 48% -25.5%
all 23 -15.0% -23.1% 48% 48% -25.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover102.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.1% 48% -25.5%
10% -30.5% 48% -32.7%
15% ← realistic here -37.2% 43% -39.2%
20% -43.3% 43% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$4,231) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -36% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,032 vs −$2,823 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,308
Realized−$9,781
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses11 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2,815
Trades / day102.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Down 43¢ 44¢ $1,307 $1,308 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 24 $6,066 +$4,602 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 24 $5,824 −$5,637 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 24 $2,024 +$1,679 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 24 $4,231 +$3,625 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 24 $4,058 +$2,320 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 24 $3,405 −$3,283 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 24 $3,300 +$824 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 24 $5,019 −$4,846 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 24 $1,103 −$1,069 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 24 $5,032 −$4,901 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 24 $813 +$610 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $904 +$1,390 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 24 $5,052 −$4,901 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 24 $134 −$129 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 24 $1,885 +$1,430 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $2,023 +$1,586 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 24 $1,829 −$1,770 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 24 $2,388 +$1,720 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 24 $3,537 −$3,432 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 24 $3,528 +$2,564 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 24 $1,470 −$1,428 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 24 $349 −$338 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 24 $2,220 −$2,141 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1,359 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1,010 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1,129 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1,009 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1,025 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $985 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $292 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $615 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1,455 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $567 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $629 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $286 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1,110 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $605 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $737 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $434 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $850 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1,138 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $672 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $350 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $366 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $363 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $252 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $240 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $514 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $496 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $215 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $799 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $589 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2,221 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,308.35 · official $1,308.35 (match) · 111 history records