Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:54:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x507c…49bd world 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 478d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate45%13W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$13
other 31% $0
culture 7% −$6
crypto 2% $0
politics 2% $0
sports 2% $0
weather 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +3.9% -6.0% 100% 0% -6.0%
≤30d 9 +18.5% +7.2% 44% 11% -5.8%
≤90d 9 +18.5% +7.2% 44% 11% -5.8%
all 29 -1.9% -11.2% 45% 3% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 3% -8.7%
10% -19.7% 3% -17.4%
15% -27.5% 3% -25.4%
20% -34.6% 3% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

478d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses13 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage478d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alberta join the US? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $59 +$2 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $6 +$10 +159%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $16 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $43 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $1 $0 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 31 $43 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $48 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 29 $26 $0 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $44 $0 +0%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Enric Mas Nicolau win the Tour de France 2025? Dec 10 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jun 26 $5 $0 +3%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? May 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 28 $5 $0 +1%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe May 27 $5 $0 -0%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2025 French Open? May 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 23 $5 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 21 $3 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? May 19 $5 $0 +1%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $5 $0 +6%
Will "I'm Still Here" win Best International Feature Film at the 2025 Mar 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 19 $7 $0 +1%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 3? Mar 02 $5 $0 +9%
Will "No Other Land" win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 2025 Osc Mar 02 $5 $0 -5%
Will "Wicked" win the most Oscars in the 2025 Academy Awards? Mar 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 40-41°F on March 3? Mar 02 $8 −$3 -37%
Will 'Wicked' win 3 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards? Mar 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Fernanda Torres win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 02 $8 $0 -0%
Rice vs. UTSA Mar 02 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $61 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $59 3h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $1 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 72¢ $16 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $48 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $49 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $6 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $10 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $11 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $3 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $3 17d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $3 17d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $41 17d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $43 17d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes $1 18d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes $1 18d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes $1 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $43 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $1 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $43 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $48 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $48 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 98¢ $48 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 99¢ $48 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $26 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $7 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $19 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $7 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.00 (match) · 74 history records