Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:24:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

50
0x507e…beae
sports · 232 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,255,595 -318%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$14,063 · open −$1,269,500
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$3,675,280
Realized+$14,063
Unrealized−$1,269,500
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses119 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$1,724
Open positions20
Markets (closed)220 / 232
Avg bet$1,700
Trades / day459.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%
Chart Positions 20 History 220 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$265
7 days+$14,063
14 days+$14,063
30 days+$14,063
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 85¢ $1,804,998 $3,070,302 +$1,265,304 (+70%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 15¢ $1,804,998 $539,694 −$1,265,304 (-70%)
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? No 54¢ 100¢ $3,597 $6,689 +$3,092 (+86%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? No 84¢ 100¢ $5,184 $6,166 +$982 (+19%)
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? No 88¢ 100¢ $5,366 $6,095 +$729 (+14%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $4,688 $4,703 +$15 (+0%)
Will Argentina vs. Iceland end in a draw? No 87¢ 100¢ $3,549 $4,062 +$513 (+14%)
Will Goiás EC win on 2026-06-10? No 59¢ 100¢ $1,922 $3,251 +$1,328 (+69%)
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs ex-Zero Tenacity - Map 1 Winner ex-Zero Tenacity 51¢ 100¢ $1,595 $3,136 +$1,541 (+97%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? No 83¢ 84¢ $2,749 $2,765 +$17 (+1%)
Will England vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? No 89¢ 100¢ $2,307 $2,592 +$286 (+12%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? No 71¢ 100¢ $1,734 $2,441 +$707 (+41%)
Will Iraq vs. Venezuela end in a draw? No 69¢ 100¢ $1,580 $2,300 +$720 (+46%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? No 74¢ 74¢ $2,266 $2,282 +$15 (+1%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner T1 36¢ 100¢ $718 $1,990 +$1,272 (+177%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $2,002 $1,987 −$15 (-1%)
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10? No 90¢ 100¢ $1,716 $1,903 +$187 (+11%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Yes 83¢ 100¢ $1,310 $1,581 +$271 (+21%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? No 52¢ 52¢ $1,554 $1,569 +$15 (+1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? No 46¢ 48¢ $1,395 $1,441 +$45 (+3%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? No 7¢ 10¢ $931 $1,180 +$249 (+27%)
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? No 83¢ 100¢ $916 $1,104 +$188 (+20%)
Will Bolivia vs. Algeria end in a draw? No 80¢ 100¢ $795 $992 +$197 (+25%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Yes 68¢ 100¢ $631 $928 +$296 (+47%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Hanwha Life Esports 69¢ 48¢ $1,148 $802 −$346 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Goiás EC win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1,931 −$9 -0%
Will Ceará SC win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $15 −$13 -86%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1,229 −$598 -49%
Will Bolivia vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $795 +$197 +25%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $687 −$627 -91%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $852 −$586 -69%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $5,366 +$729 +14%
Will England vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? Jun 10 $2,307 +$286 +12%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $4,099 +$3,094 +76%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $2,687 −$2,686 -100%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $2,540 −$245 -10%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $916 +$188 +20%
Will Ceará SC vs. Avaí FC end in a draw? Jun 10 $13 +$5 +39%
Will Argentina vs. Iceland end in a draw? Jun 10 $3,549 +$513 +14%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $1,735 +$707 +41%
Will Iceland win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $201 −$201 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $1,749 −$438 -25%
Will Iraq vs. Venezuela end in a draw? Jun 09 $1,580 +$720 +46%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5,195 −$3 -0%
Will Goiás EC vs. Grêmio Novorizontino end in a draw? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Verdant - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $89 −$89 -100%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $119 +$321 +269%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $216 −$32 -15%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $171 −$155 -91%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-06-06? Jun 09 $1 +$2 +335%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Bermuda end in a draw? Jun 09 $5 $0 +5%
Game Handicap: DK (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-06? Jun 09 $3 +$5 +160%
Will América FC vs. AC Goianiense end in a draw? Jun 09 $6 +$3 +47%
Will FC Mito Holly Hock vs. V-Varen Nagasaki end in a draw? Jun 09 $9 +$4 +43%
Will Brazil vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 09 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Romania win on 2026-06-06? Jun 09 $5 +$9 +194%
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) Jun 09 $19 +$8 +45%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $6 +$10 +149%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-06? Jun 09 $32 +$4 +12%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Albania win on 2026-06-06? Jun 09 $17 +$25 +145%
Will Ecuador vs. Guatemala end in a draw? Jun 09 $39 +$6 +15%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-06? Jun 09 $28 +$36 +128%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $66 −$6 -9%
Will Albania vs. Luxembourg end in a draw? Jun 09 $57 +$14 +24%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) Jun 09 $53 +$19 +35%
Game Handicap: C9 (-1.5) vs LYON (+1.5) Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $54 +$28 +52%
Will São Bernardo FC win on 2026-06-07? Jun 09 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Luxembourg win on 2026-06-06? Jun 09 $82 −$82 -100%
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Movistar KOI (+2.5) Jun 09 $55 −$46 -84%
Will Armenia vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? Jun 09 $90 −$90 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 41% +$6,283
sports 32% +$2,683
politics 25% −$1,265,304
world 1% +$1,398
crypto 0% −$497
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 62¢ $56 34m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 68¢ $7 37m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 68¢ $340 37m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 69¢ $345 37m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 67¢ $91 38m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 33¢ $615 38m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 67¢ $6 38m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 67¢ $34 38m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 67¢ $2 38m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 67¢ $173 38m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 67¢ $0 38m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 67¢ $0 38m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 67¢ $0 38m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 67¢ $1 38m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 67¢ $0 38m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 67¢ $11 38m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 67¢ $5 38m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 67¢ $4 38m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 67¢ $1 38m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 67¢ $94 38m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 67¢ $0 38m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 67¢ $1 38m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 67¢ $2 38m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 70¢ $353 39m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 70¢ $353 39m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 70¢ $351 39m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 32¢ $163 41m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 30¢ $0 41m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 30¢ $14 41m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 30¢ $0 41m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 220 +12.9% +2.1% 54% 50% -4.5%
≤30d 220 +12.9% +2.1% 54% 50% -4.5%
≤90d 220 +12.9% +2.1% 54% 50% -4.5%
all 220 +12.9% +2.1% 54% 50% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover459.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.1% 50% -4.5%
10% -7.6% 40% -13.6%
15% ← realistic here -16.6% 32% -22.0%
20% -24.7% 25% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,675,279.52 · official $3,675,279.52 (match) · 3500 history records