Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:28:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
50 0x507e…0e54 other 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-1%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%31W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$47
7 days+$76
14 days−$55
30 days−$151
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$65
sports 3% +$1
crypto 1% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +26.3% +14.3% 74% 74% +5.5%
≤30d 30 +6.8% -3.3% 57% 57% -19.3%
≤90d 61 +1.7% -8.0% 51% 51% -11.8%
all 61 +1.7% -8.0% 51% 51% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 51% -11.8%
10% -16.8% 48% -20.2%
15% -24.8% 39% -27.9%
20% -32.2% 28% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$24 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses31 / 30
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage56d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-04-30? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $10 +$13 +129%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $31 −$15 -48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $93 −$55 -59%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $40 +$12 +31%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $34 +$18 +52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$10 +20%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $13 +$6 +46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $40 +$25 +62%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $27 +$13 +48%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$14 +140%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 +$4 +36%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$5 -36%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11 +$5 +49%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$10 -50%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$9 -91%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $61 −$58 -95%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $59 −$58 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $157 −$98 -62%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $38 +$62 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $104 +$46 +44%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $218 −$148 -68%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $109 +$105 +97%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $160 −$53 -33%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $119 +$41 +34%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $30 +$15 +50%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $71 +$48 +67%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $71 −$37 -52%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? May 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $40 +$14 +34%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $25 +$16 +65%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $41 +$46 +114%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $25 +$46 +180%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $22 +$3 +14%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $36 −$28 -80%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $24 +$11 +47%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $34 −$15 -44%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $20 +$13 +65%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $7 −$7 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $10 −$7 -70%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 04 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $5 +$15 +291%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $38 1h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 43¢ $10 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 18¢ $16 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 33¢ $31 18h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 29¢ $38 37h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $42 41h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 76¢ $40 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 41¢ $19 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 44¢ $19 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $13 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 29¢ $13 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $34 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $40 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 54¢ $5 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $41 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $27 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 3¢ $1 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 82¢ $15 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $11 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 50¢ $10 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $15 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $17 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $11 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.73 · official $37.73 (match) · 115 history records