Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:04:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

50 0x5081…41fd other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$365 (+8%) realized +$421 · open −$56

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip

Net edge+4%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown94%max

Avg bet$1,210per market

Trades / day0.6pace

Fees−$10est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$2,225now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+8.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+19.9%	+8.5%	67%	67%	+2.8%
≤30d	3	+19.9%	+8.5%	67%	67%	+2.8%
≤90d	3	+19.9%	+8.5%	67%	67%	+2.8%
all	3	+19.9%	+8.5%	67%	67%	+2.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+8.5%	67%	+2.8%
10%	-1.9%	67%	-7.0%
15%	-11.4%	67%	-16.0%
20%	-20.1%	67%	-24.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 79% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +14% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +20% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$672 vs −$1,000 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.34 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$2,225

Realized+$421

Unrealized−$56

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Est. fees paid−$10

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage7d

Avg bet$1,210

Trades / day0.6

Drawdown94%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	61¢	60¢	$2,281	$2,225	−$56 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$505	+$276	+55%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 13	$1,010	−$1,000	-99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$1,016	+$1,068	+105%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$2,308	1h
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Spurs	65¢	$1,010	6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	64¢	$505	6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	48¢	$1,016	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,225.30 · official $2,225.30 (match) · 6 history records