Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:21:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

50 0x5085…0de9 other 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL −$78 (-7%) realized −$79 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip

Net edge-32%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%9W / 18L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$40per market

Trades / day8.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit24%portable

Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-26.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	27	-18.8%	-26.6%	33%	33%	-12.7%
≤30d	27	-18.8%	-26.6%	33%	33%	-12.7%
≤90d	27	-18.8%	-26.6%	33%	33%	-12.7%
all	27	-18.8%	-26.6%	33%	33%	-12.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-26.6%	33%	-12.7%
10%	-33.6%	33%	-21.1%
15%	-40.0%	30%	-28.7%
20%	-45.9%	11%	-35.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 30% · top 2 59% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -19% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +39% → late -73% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$33 vs −$18 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.89 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$121

Realized−$79

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses9 / 18

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)27 / 29

History coverage6d

Avg bet$40

Trades / day8.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 27 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	41¢	42¢	$100	$101	+$1 (+1%)
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals	Yes	51¢	52¢	$20	$20	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals	Jun 22	$25	+$11	+43%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$257	+$89	+35%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan?	Jun 21	$3	−$3	-98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan?	Jun 21	$6	−$6	-98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 0 Japan?	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Jun 21	$26	−$7	-25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Jun 21	$31	−$23	-74%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$21	−$21	-99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5	Jun 21	$30	−$30	-98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao?	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao?	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao?	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-97%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5	Jun 21	$30	−$30	-99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score	Jun 20	$3	+$2	+73%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5	Jun 20	$20	+$10	+48%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	Jun 20	$20	+$12	+59%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$25	+$12	+48%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire?	Jun 20	$5	+$36	+711%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 20	$10	−$10	-98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire?	Jun 20	$10	−$10	-97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire?	Jun 20	$6	−$6	-97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$172	+$85	+50%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria?	Jun 17	$82	−$19	-23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$74	+$35	+48%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria?	Jun 16	$72	−$70	-98%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria?	Jun 16	$72	−$70	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals	SELL Yes	100¢	$36	51m
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	69¢	$25	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	41¢	$81	2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	41¢	$20	2h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	51¢	$20	2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$246	3h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan?	BUY Yes	15¢	$3	44h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan?	BUY Yes	16¢	$6	44h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 0 Japan?	BUY Yes	8¢	$5	44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	BUY Up	56¢	$5	44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	SELL Up	34¢	$20	44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	BUY Up	33¢	$5	44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	BUY Up	34¢	$5	44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	BUY Up	33¢	$5	44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	BUY Up	33¢	$5	44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	SELL Down	6¢	$2	44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	BUY Down	79¢	$25	44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	SELL Down	76¢	$6	44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	BUY Down	59¢	$5	44h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	72¢	$10	45h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5	BUY Over	50¢	$30	45h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	10¢	$5	45h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao?	BUY Yes	5¢	$5	45h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao?	BUY Yes	10¢	$5	45h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao?	BUY Yes	8¢	$5	45h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	63¢	$30	45h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	75¢	$11	45h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$5	2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$30	2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$32	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.42 · official $121.42 (match) · 52 history records