Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T04:37:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5085…22c7 crypto 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$166 (-3%) realized −$930 · open +$764
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate34%10W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$3,633now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$860
7 days−$921
14 days−$921
30 days−$1,090
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 86% +$532
crypto 11% −$198
world 1% −$21
other 1% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-43.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -40.3% -45.9% 33% 0% -78.9%
≤30d 26 -39.7% -45.5% 35% 31% -63.5%
≤90d 27 -35.9% -42.0% 37% 33% -22.7%
all 29 -37.7% -43.6% 34% 31% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.6% 31% -23.9%
10% -49.0% 24% -31.2%
15% -54.0% 17% -37.8%
20% -58.5% 10% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$68 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$3,633
Realized−$930
Unrealized+$764
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses10 / 19
Open positions4
Markets (closed)29 / 33
History coverage94d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 Yes 22¢ 29¢ $2,548 $3,338 +$789 (+31%)
Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026 No 72¢ 70¢ $276 $267 −$9 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $30 $20 −$10 (-34%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026 Jun 28 $82 +$8 +9%
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026 Jun 28 $966 −$867 -90%
Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q2 2026 Jun 23 $152 −$61 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 31 $61 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 31 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 31 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 31 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 31 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 31 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 31 $30 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 31 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 31 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 31 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 31 $51 +$17 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 31 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 31 $57 +$23 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 31 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 31 $26 −$18 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 31 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 31 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 31 $10 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 31 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 31 $52 +$74 +141%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q1 2026 Apr 04 $1,047 +$672 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Mar 30 $36 −$36 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Mar 30 $86 −$21 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $651 1h
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $127 1h
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $60 1h
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $239 2h
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 30¢ $154 2h
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 30¢ $334 2h
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 25¢ $53 18h
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 25¢ $42 18h
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 25¢ $252 19h
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 25¢ $3 19h
Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY No 75¢ $52 21h
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 25¢ $1 22h
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 25¢ $1 22h
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 25¢ $25 24h
Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY No 75¢ $4 25h
Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY No 75¢ $15 25h
Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY No 75¢ $4 25h
Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY No 77¢ $55 26h
Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY No 70¢ $140 26h
Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY No 63¢ $9 26h
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 15¢ $97 26h
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026 SELL No 92¢ $90 26h
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 15¢ $105 26h
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 21¢ $1 26h
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 17¢ $42 26h
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026 SELL Yes 6¢ $99 26h
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 11¢ $45 2d
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 12¢ $360 2d
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 67¢ $6 4d
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 61¢ $14 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,632.79 · official $3,607.94 (match) · 205 history records