Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:52:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
50 0x5085…f08b sports 5 markets active 5d ago coverage 45d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$47 (-62%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$24
14 days−$24
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-59.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 -25.5% -32.6% 33% 33% -40.0%
≤90d 5 -55.3% -59.6% 20% 20% -53.5%
all 5 -55.3% -59.6% 20% 20% -53.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -59.6% 20% -53.5%
10% -63.4% 20% -58.0%
15% -67.0% 20% -62.0%
20% -70.2% 20% -65.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -91% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -91% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$15 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage45d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $26 −$24 -91%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $26 −$26 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $12 +$15 +124%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 11¢ $2 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 5¢ $2 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 61¢ $24 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $26 15d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 44¢ $12 18d
Rockets vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 37¢ $2 49d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers BUY Raptors 25¢ $10 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records