Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:49:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x508b…9c09 other 236 markets active 1h ago coverage 211d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$114 (-3%) realized −$131 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate60%140W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$24
14 days−$26
30 days−$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$57
sports 43% −$41
crypto 0% −$9
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +0.5% -9.1% 64% 64% -5.7%
≤30d 116 -24.2% -31.4% 47% 47% -18.0%
≤90d 202 -13.9% -22.1% 58% 55% -13.6%
all 235 -11.4% -19.9% 60% 57% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 57% -12.3%
10% -27.5% 47% -20.7%
15% -34.5% 35% -28.4%
20% -41.0% 18% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$10 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

211d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$131
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses140 / 95
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)235 / 236
History coverage211d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 235 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $70 $87 +$17 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 74 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 +$7 +64%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $19 +$11 +59%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $15 +$12 +81%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $3 −$3 -98%
France leading at halftime? Jun 22 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$5 +48%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $6 −$6 -99%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $12 +$4 +36%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $8 +$4 +43%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $5 −$3 -60%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +52%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $9 +$15 +172%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 +$7 +67%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $5 +$5 +89%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $7 −$7 -99%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $10 +$3 +34%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 +$4 +38%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $10 +$5 +52%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $10 +$5 +50%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 +$7 +67%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$2 +24%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$5 +50%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $15 +$12 +78%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $9 +$6 +61%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $20 −$8 -40%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $20 +$5 +26%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 +$6 +60%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 +$7 +65%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 +$4 +41%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$7 +34%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$11 +26%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 +$5 +53%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 +$3 +30%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $20 +$10 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $17 46m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $30 46m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $10 1h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $27 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $9 3h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $10 3h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $3 4h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 4h
France leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 4h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $5 5h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 9h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $6 9h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 73¢ $12 28h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $12 28h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $8 28h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 29h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 29h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $8 31h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $10 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 36¢ $9 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $7 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 70¢ $20 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $17 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $10 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $5 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.84 · official $86.84 (match) · 431 history records