Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:53:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x508c…2a88 other 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$93 (+11%) realized +$108 · open −$15
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%8W / 15L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$240now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days+$11
14 days+$79
30 days+$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% +$71
sports 12% +$2
world 1% −$10
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -38.4% -44.2% 25% 25% -2.8%
≤30d 23 -19.9% -27.5% 35% 35% +11.9%
≤90d 23 -19.9% -27.5% 35% 35% +11.9%
all 23 -19.9% -27.5% 35% 35% +11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.5% 35% +11.9%
10% -34.5% 30% +1.2%
15% -40.8% 30% -8.6%
20% -46.6% 22% -17.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -48% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$9 · ×2.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$240
Realized+$108
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses8 / 15
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)23 / 32
History coverage12d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+4%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 28¢ $25 $9 −$16 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +19%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 −$3 -6%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$63 +307%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $192 −$14 -7%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$11 +105%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$48 +157%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $25 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $41 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 2h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 18h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 65¢ $47 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 28h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 65¢ $174 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $91 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 5d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 5d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 6d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 38¢ $10 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $240.00 · official $246.36 · 73 history records