Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:16:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x508d…3961 sports 359 markets active 2h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,517 (-12%) realized −$1,517 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%140W / 219L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$123est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$299
7 days−$652
14 days+$31
30 days−$407
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$1,279
other 27% −$129
world 0% −$52
crypto 0% +$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -23.9% -31.1% 34% 34% -35.0%
≤30d 78 -3.3% -12.5% 37% 37% -17.8%
≤90d 234 -2.8% -12.1% 41% 41% -19.5%
all 359 -6.1% -15.1% 39% 39% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 39% -19.2%
10% -23.2% 39% -26.9%
15% -30.6% 38% -34.0%
20% -37.4% 38% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$36 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,517
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses140 / 219
Est. fees paid−$123
Open positions0
Markets (closed)359 / 359
History coverage140d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 359 Trades
no open positions (217 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $42 +$58 +140%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $92 +$108 +117%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $71 −$69 -98%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $122 −$122 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $36 −$36 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $75 −$75 -100%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $64 −$64 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $43 +$57 +133%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $80 +$120 +150%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $75 +$125 +167%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $118 −$118 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $32 −$31 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $102 −$102 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $64 +$96 +150%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $90 +$110 +122%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $34 −$34 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $88 −$88 -100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $60 +$40 +67%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $110 −$108 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $188 −$187 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $98 −$98 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $101 +$99 +98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $106 −$106 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $122 +$78 +64%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $16 −$16 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Switzerlan Jun 18 $31 +$74 +243%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $36 +$84 +233%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $56 +$144 +257%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $78 +$142 +184%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $54 +$49 +89%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $98 +$102 +104%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $66 +$134 +203%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $70 +$130 +186%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $27 +$33 +122%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $30 +$90 +300%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $41 +$32 +77%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $21 +$25 +118%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $66 −$66 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 41¢ $42 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 46¢ $91 21h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 46¢ $1 21h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 23¢ $71 23h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 20¢ $13 23h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 33¢ $34 23h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 20¢ $7 24h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $47 24h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Qatar 10¢ $10 26h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Qatar 22¢ $8 26h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Qatar 22¢ $14 26h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 36¢ $36 26h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Qatar 56¢ $50 27h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Qatar 56¢ $12 27h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Qatar 56¢ $6 27h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Qatar 56¢ $21 27h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $2 43h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $1 43h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $7 43h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $0 43h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $10 43h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $5 43h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $2 43h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $3 43h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $0 43h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $3 43h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $0 43h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $1 43h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $6 43h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $3 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1057 history records