Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:10:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5090…2037 crypto 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (68 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$78 (-10%) realized −$21 · open −$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day68.0pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$102
other 13% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (68 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -6.2% -15.1% 46% 23% -24.7%
≤30d 13 -6.2% -15.1% 46% 23% -24.7%
≤90d 13 -6.2% -15.1% 46% 23% -24.7%
all 13 -6.2% -15.1% 46% 23% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover68.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 23% -24.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 23% -31.9%
15% -30.6% 23% -38.5%
20% -37.4% 23% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$29 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$21
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day68.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 68¢ 30¢ $100 $43 −$57 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $42 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 20 $116 −$111 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$36 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$43 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 20 $102 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 20 $175 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 20 $82 −$70 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 20 $55 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$8 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $109 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $176 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.38 · official $43.38 (match) · 68 history records