Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:30:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
50 0x5090…9e15 sports 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$425 (+35%) realized +$433 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%6W / 17L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$122
7 days+$190
14 days+$403
30 days+$418
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$685
other 24% −$275
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +41.7% +28.2% 20% 20% +21.6%
≤30d 23 +43.1% +29.5% 26% 26% +26.9%
≤90d 23 +43.1% +29.5% 26% 26% +26.9%
all 23 +43.1% +29.5% 26% 26% +26.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +29.5% 26% +26.9%
10% +17.1% 26% +14.8%
15% +5.8% 26% +3.7%
20% -4.6% 26% -6.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +61% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$193 vs −$44 · ×4.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized+$433
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses6 / 17
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 29
History coverage22d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $62 $62 −$1 (-1%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 16¢ 10¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Tunisia leading at halftime? Jun 21 $62 −$60 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $17 +$149 +874%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $103 −$100 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $13 −$13 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $49 +$218 +442%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $51 +$258 +510%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $49 −$48 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $53 −$52 -98%
Haiti leading at halftime? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $70 +$308 +442%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 13 $51 +$171 +334%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 11 $99 −$97 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $60 +$54 +90%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $39 −$39 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $63 29m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $21 34m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $21 11h
Tunisia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 11¢ $62 13h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $17 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 22¢ $31 22h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $10 22h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $51 22h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $103 47h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $13 3d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-1 BUY $10 3d
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 20¢ $16 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $26 3d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $49 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $51 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $49 6d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $53 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Sweden vs. Tunisia BUY $21 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in BUY $10 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND W BUY $21 7d
Haiti leading at halftime? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $70 8d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 23¢ $51 8d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $51 8d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 15¢ $99 9d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $60 22d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $39 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.63 · official $77.13 · 36 history records