Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:41:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5092…5d68 crypto 401 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 2d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1510 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,551 (+2%) realized +$1,577 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip
Net edge-63%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate26%222W / 636L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day1509.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,623
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1510 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-57.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 858 -52.4% -57.0% 26% 22% -16.4%
≤30d 858 -52.4% -57.0% 26% 22% -16.4%
≤90d 858 -52.4% -57.0% 26% 22% -16.4%
all 858 -52.4% -57.0% 26% 22% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1509.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -57.0% 22% -16.4%
10% ← realistic here -61.1% 18% -24.4%
15% -64.8% 14% -31.7%
20% -68.3% 11% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -52% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -95% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$31 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$1,577
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses222 / 636
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)858 / 401
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$160
Trades / day1509.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 858 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 58¢ 88¢ $14 $22 +$7 (+53%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Up 48¢ 12¢ $35 $8 −$26 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 28 $0 +$1 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 28 $0 +$1 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 28 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 28 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 28 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 28 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 28 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 28 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 28 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 28 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $11 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $11 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $22 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $37 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $33 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $19 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $9 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $178 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $43 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $13 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $17 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $109 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $87 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $52 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $126 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 31m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.81 · official $35.76 · 3500 history records