Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:52:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
50 0x5095…caab crypto 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 236d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this crypto specialist
Total PnL +$332 (+16%) realized +$332 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate61%30W / 19L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$251
7 days+$318
14 days+$318
30 days+$318
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% +$168
sports 27% +$176
other 24% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +16.3% +5.2% 60% 56% +4.1%
≤30d 48 +16.3% +5.2% 60% 56% +4.1%
≤90d 48 +16.3% +5.2% 60% 56% +4.1%
all 49 +32.5% +19.9% 61% 57% +5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.9% 57% +5.0%
10% +8.4% 51% -5.1%
15% -2.1% 45% -14.3%
20% -11.7% 29% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late +30% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$20 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$332
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses30 / 19
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage236d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$9 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 22 $11 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 22 $103 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$9 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$5 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$5 -47%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$37 +365%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $10 +$7 +73%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $143 +$51 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 21 $103 +$15 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $44 −$16 -37%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $111 +$45 +41%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$77 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $11 +$9 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$5 +50%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $29 +$3 +10%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $202 +$80 +40%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 −$9 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $113 −$26 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$9 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 21 $113 +$14 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 21 $21 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 21 $118 −$79 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 21 $128 +$156 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$8 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $11 +$29 +270%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $104 +$50 +48%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $26 −$19 -74%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $49 −$37 -74%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $45 −$33 -73%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $56 +$39 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$4 -24%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $91 −$3 -3%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $99 +$62 +62%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 09 $3 +$20 +808%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $17 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $14 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $15 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $117 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 2h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 57¢ $10 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 144 history records