Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:18:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

50
0x5095…93ee
culture · 192 markets active 1d ago
2.0score
+$51,636 +16%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$51,831 · open −$195
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP culture specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$360
Realized+$51,831
Unrealized−$195
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses101 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)195 / 192
Avg bet$1,633
Trades / day23.1
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 1 History 195 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$329
7 days−$3,074
14 days−$4,775
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Yes 37¢ 24¢ $555 $360 −$195 (-35%)
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 13m? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 15m? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $1,148 $0 −$1,148 (-100%)
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 55m? No 59¢ 0¢ $924 $0 −$924 (-100%)
Will "Lee Cronin's The Mummy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 15m? No 32¢ 0¢ $854 $0 −$854 (-100%)
Will "Michael" be the highest grossing movie of this weekend? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $74 $0 −$74 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $410 $0 −$410 (-100%)
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m? No 15¢ 0¢ $214 $0 −$214 (-100%)
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 55m and 60m? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $82 $0 −$82 (-100%)
Will "GOAT" Third Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $256 $0 −$256 (-100%)
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and 35m? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $244 $0 −$244 (-100%)
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 25m and 28m? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $191 $0 −$191 (-100%)
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 37m and 40m? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $263 $0 −$263 (-100%)
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 55m? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $2,143 $0 −$2,143 (-100%)
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 24m? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 15m? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $467 $0 −$467 (-100%)
Will "Hoppers" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 35m? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 45m and 50m? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 55m? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $82 $0 −$82 (-100%)
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 11m? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12.5m? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 50m? No 9¢ 0¢ $238 $0 −$238 (-100%)
Will "Hoppers" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $1,628 $0 −$1,628 (-100%)
Will "Animal Farm" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 2m? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 55m and Jun 12 $82 −$82 -100%
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 50m and Jun 12 $82 −$82 -100%
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 60m and Jun 12 $82 −$82 -100%
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 65m and Jun 12 $82 −$82 -100%
Will "Backrooms" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 27m? Jun 08 $917 +$138 +15%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 Jun 08 $1,369 −$54 -4%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 Jun 08 $5,002 +$158 +3%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 08 $9,229 −$2,557 -28%
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 27m? Jun 08 $66 +$3 +5%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 52m? Jun 08 $209 −$208 -100%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 Jun 07 $1,820 −$168 -9%
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 24m? Jun 06 $80 −$80 -100%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than Jun 06 $2,149 +$424 +20%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 06 $400 −$400 -100%
Will "Obsession" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 01 $38 +$10 +25%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 61m? Jun 01 $7,719 +$1,633 +21%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 61m? Jun 01 $20 +$5 +25%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m? Jun 01 $10,366 −$1,176 -11%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 25m Jun 01 $425 −$32 -8%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m Jun 01 $2,403 −$591 -25%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m? May 31 $3,813 −$1,370 -36%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m? May 31 $144 +$20 +14%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 67m and 73m? May 31 $213 −$202 -95%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 6m May 30 $9 +$4 +38%
Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 12.5m? May 27 $152 +$48 +32%
Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9.5m? May 27 $1,398 +$602 +43%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 27 $2,925 +$2,354 +80%
Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9.5m and 11m? May 24 $99 +$217 +220%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l May 23 $2,912 +$1,437 +49%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 10. May 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 23 $2,888 −$121 -4%
Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12.5m? May 23 $3 −$3 -99%
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 15m? May 18 $5,583 −$478 -9%
Will "In the Grey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 5m? May 18 $17 +$3 +21%
Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 25m? May 18 $2,498 +$1,990 +80%
Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 22m and 25m? May 18 $1,032 +$539 +52%
Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m? May 16 $4 +$2 +66%
Will "In the Grey" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3.5m? May 16 $500 −$398 -80%
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 15m? May 16 $1,162 −$1,148 -99%
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 13m? May 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 11m? May 14 $120 −$120 -100%
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 9m? May 14 $6 +$1 +14%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the second highest grossing movie of May 12 $33 +$15 +45%
Will "Mortal Kombat 2" be the highest grossing movie of this weekend? May 12 $1,232 +$310 +25%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and May 12 $4,196 +$1,434 +34%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and May 12 $3,707 +$1,868 +50%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 45m and May 12 $8 +$2 +25%
Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than May 11 $160 +$40 +25%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m? May 11 $3,897 +$1,439 +37%
Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12m May 11 $467 −$467 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
culture 99% +$52,334
other 1% −$265
world 0% −$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY Yes 37¢ $555 28h
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 52m? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? SELL No 0¢ $1 4d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 BUY Yes 90¢ $75 4d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 BUY Yes 90¢ $807 4d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 BUY Yes 90¢ $900 4d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 BUY Yes 90¢ $918 4d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 SELL No 81¢ $1,652 4d
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 27m? BUY Yes 95¢ $66 4d
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? BUY No 14¢ $280 5d
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? BUY No 35¢ $700 5d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 BUY No 66¢ $3 5d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 BUY No 62¢ $1,322 5d
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 52m? BUY Yes 38¢ $209 5d
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? BUY No 36¢ $885 5d
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? BUY No 43¢ $1,210 5d
Will "Backrooms" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 27m? BUY Yes 87¢ $792 5d
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 24m? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 5d
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 24m? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 5d
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 24m? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 5d
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 24m? BUY Yes 16¢ $39 5d
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 24m? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 5d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 BUY No 90¢ $27 5d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 BUY No 90¢ $882 5d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 BUY No 90¢ $9 5d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 BUY No 90¢ $882 5d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than SELL Yes 15¢ $31 5d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 BUY Yes 60¢ $60 5d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than SELL Yes 15¢ $2 5d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than SELL Yes 10¢ $59 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -38.8% -44.6% 29% 14% -23.7%
≤30d 42 -8.9% -17.6% 45% 40% -7.1%
≤90d 125 -4.4% -13.5% 50% 46% +2.7%
all 195 +2.7% -7.0% 52% 46% +9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover23.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.0% 46% +9.3%
10% -15.9% 36% -1.2%
15% ← realistic here -24.1% 27% -10.7%
20% -31.5% 21% -19.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $360.00 · official $360.00 (match) · 3500 history records