Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:23:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5097…6e93 weather 104 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$22 (-0%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate90%80W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$643now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$57
7 days−$19
14 days−$12
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 41% +$15
crypto 29% +$7
other 23% −$113
sports 7% +$81
world 0% −$10
politics 0% −$5
finance 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -2.6% -11.9% 93% 5% -9.8%
≤30d 82 -6.4% -15.3% 90% 4% -9.8%
≤90d 87 -5.9% -14.9% 90% 3% -9.8%
all 89 -5.8% -14.7% 90% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 3% -9.8%
10% -22.9% 2% -18.4%
15% -30.4% 1% -26.3%
20% -37.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$35 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$643
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses80 / 9
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions15
Markets (closed)89 / 104
History coverage137d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C or higher on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $155 $155 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $134 $134 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 18? No 100¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 91¢ 93¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 93¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 90¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $215 +$3 +2%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $110 +$5 +5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $351 +$18 +5%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $42 +$2 +4%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $210 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $210 $0 +0%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $351 +$30 +8%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $231 −$231 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $255 +$105 +41%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $200 +$7 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $75 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $390 +$18 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $60 −$56 -93%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $155 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $97 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $150 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $58 $0 +1%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $237 +$6 +3%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $216 +$15 +7%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $14 −$2 -12%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $330 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $222 +$38 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $34 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 39°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $196 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on June 12? Jun 12 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $220 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 99¢ $40 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 97¢ $40 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 99¢ $100 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 98¢ $100 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 98¢ $15 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 40¢ $5 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 4h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 99¢ $19 6h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 96¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 93¢ $18 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? BUY No 100¢ $10 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 97¢ $200 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $25 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $25 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 9h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 97¢ $10 10h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $100 10h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $20 10h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $10 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $50 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 10h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 94¢ $5 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $642.70 · official $642.66 (match) · 294 history records