Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:27:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
50 0x5098…48de crypto 111 markets active 2h ago coverage 418d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,078 (+7%) realized +$1,872 · open −$794
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate65%71W / 39L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$201est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$80
7 days+$626
14 days+$626
30 days+$626
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$850
crypto 27% −$438
other 16% +$1,457
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +5.1% -5.0% 61% 54% -2.6%
≤30d 28 +5.1% -5.0% 61% 54% -2.6%
≤90d 28 +5.1% -5.0% 61% 54% -2.6%
all 110 +2.3% -7.4% 65% 54% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 54% -3.4%
10% -16.3% 45% -12.6%
15% -24.4% 36% -21.1%
20% -31.8% 25% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$92 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

418d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$1,872
Unrealized−$794
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses71 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$201
Open positions1
Markets (closed)110 / 111
History coverage418d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Bruno Fernandez 49¢ $802 $8 −$794 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $547 +$258 +47%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 15 $1,024 −$478 -47%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $285 −$285 -100%
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 15 $327 −$297 -91%
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Sumit Nagal Jun 15 $500 +$270 +54%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $360 +$472 +131%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $250 −$250 -100%
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Giorgia Pedone Jun 15 $310 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $153 +$153 +100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $428 −$124 -29%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $480 +$68 +14%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $194 +$8 +4%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $387 +$288 +74%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $504 +$24 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $213 −$213 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $166 +$128 +77%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $314 +$164 +52%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $504 +$296 +59%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw Jun 13 $141 +$121 +86%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $300 +$196 +65%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 13 $97 −$6 -6%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Hannah Klugman vs Anastasia Zakharova Jun 13 $2 +$1 +32%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $56 +$21 +38%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Toby Samuel Jun 13 $200 +$80 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $104 +$38 +36%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-21? Jan 21 $980 +$1,018 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 8AM ET Jan 12 $65 −$65 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) Jan 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Eagles (-3.5) Jan 12 $21 −$21 -100%
ASB Classic: Emilio Nava vs Sebastian Baez Jan 12 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) Jan 12 $32 −$32 -100%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) Jan 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Adelaide International: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Sebastian Korda Jan 12 $13 +$26 +195%
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) Jan 12 $16 +$1 +6%
Adelaide International: Daria Kasatkina vs Maria Sakkari Jan 12 $30 +$12 +40%
Adelaide International: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Valentin Vacherot Jan 12 $18 −$13 -70%
Hobart International: Olga Danilovic vs McCartney Kessler Jan 12 $20 +$20 +97%
Adelaide International: Jaqueline Cristian vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jan 12 $64 +$47 +74%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs DN SOOPers Challengers - Game 2 Winne Jan 12 $22 +$11 +47%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-11? Jan 11 $23 +$37 +156%
Bills vs. Jaguars Jan 11 $51 $0 +1%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) Jan 11 $16 +$24 +147%
FC Bayern München vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 4.5 Jan 11 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 7AM ET Dec 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 1AM ET Dec 05 $69 −$69 -100%
Spread: Lions (-3.5) Dec 05 $34 +$36 +108%
Manchester United vs. West Ham: Both Teams to Score Dec 05 $58 −$58 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 47¢ $12 1h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 49¢ $5 1h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 49¢ $4 1h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 49¢ $9 1h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 49¢ $4 1h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 49¢ $4 1h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 49¢ $4 1h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 49¢ $21 1h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 49¢ $4 1h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 49¢ $4 1h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 49¢ $1 1h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 49¢ $8 1h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 49¢ $301 1h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 49¢ $4 1h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 49¢ $124 1h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 49¢ $2 1h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 49¢ $4 1h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 49¢ $99 1h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 49¢ $20 1h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 49¢ $167 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 39¢ $805 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $98 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $415 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $0 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 2h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston SELL Hugo Gaston 27¢ $547 2h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 31¢ $24 3h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 50¢ $770 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.19 · official $8.19 (match) · 481 history records