trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 14 | $44 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 14 | $9 | −$1 | -10% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 13 | $95 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 13 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | Jun 11 | $2 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? | Jun 10 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 10 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | Jun 09 | $4 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Tommy Paul win Wimbledon 2025? | Mar 31 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? | Jul 06 | $10 | −$1 | -5% |
| Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect | Jun 06 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? | May 13 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | May 13 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? | May 10 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb | May 10 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referen | May 09 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi | May 08 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres | May 08 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? | May 07 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? | May 07 | $11 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 18 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? | Apr 17 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 30 | $12 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Solana dip to $100 by March? | Mar 27 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? | Mar 25 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? | Mar 25 | $3 | $0 | -4% |
| Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 18 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 14-21? | Mar 03 | $10 | +$2 | +25% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | -1.6% | -11.0% | 25% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -1.6% | -11.0% | 25% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -12.6% | -20.9% | 22% | 0% | -9.3% |
| all | 28 | -6.8% | -15.7% | 39% | 4% | -9.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -15.7% | 4% | -9.3% |
| 10% | -23.8% | 4% | -18.0% |
| 15% | -31.1% | 0% | -25.9% |
| 20% | -37.9% | 0% | -33.2% |