Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:56:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x509b…65d0 weather 313 markets active 5d ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$94 (-21%) realized −$94 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%118W / 195L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$7
14 days+$9
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +21.9% +10.3% 72% 72% +10.9%
≤30d 191 -2.9% -12.2% 52% 52% -10.4%
≤90d 313 -18.4% -26.1% 38% 38% -31.9%
all 313 -18.4% -26.1% 38% 38% -31.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.1% 38% -31.9%
10% -33.2% 37% -38.4%
15% -39.7% 37% -44.4%
20% -45.6% 35% -49.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$94
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses118 / 195
Open positions0
Markets (closed)313 / 313
History coverage74d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 313 Trades
no open positions (137 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +78%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +66%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +75%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +177%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 9? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +54%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 4? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 4? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +54%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 5? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 4? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 4? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 4? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 4? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 4? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 4? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 +$1 +80%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 61¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? BUY No 57¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? BUY No 43¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 13? BUY No 55¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 51¢ $1 5d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 35¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 59¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? BUY No 53¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 61¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 64¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 59¢ $1 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 55¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? BUY No 56¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 12? BUY No 56¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 49¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 63¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 60¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 12? BUY No 64¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? BUY No 62¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? BUY No 56¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 11? BUY No 62¢ $1 7d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 11? BUY No 61¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? BUY No 56¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 10? BUY No 60¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 10? BUY No 54¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? BUY No 65¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 11? BUY No 61¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? BUY No 60¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 11? BUY No 65¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 10? BUY No 65¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.46 · official $3.46 (match) · 593 history records