trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets | Jun 13 | $5 | −$5 | -97% |
| U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? | Apr 12 | $10 | −$20 | -200% |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by April 30? | Apr 02 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? | Apr 01 | $18 | +$29 | +163% |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? | Mar 28 | $5 | +$3 | +54% |
| Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31? | Jan 29 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will António José Seguro win the second round by 40–50%? | Jan 29 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤30d | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤90d | 5 | -16.6% | -24.5% | 40% | 40% | -79.1% |
| all | 7 | -40.4% | -46.1% | 29% | 29% | -79.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -46.1% | 29% | -79.7% |
| 10% | -51.2% | 29% | -81.6% |
| 15% | -55.9% | 29% | -83.4% |
| 20% | -60.3% | 29% | -85.0% |