Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:47:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
50 0x50a0…d485 other 24 markets active 1d ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$5 (+20%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%14W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$8
14 days+$7
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$3
sports 28% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +136.2% +113.7% 100% 100% +113.9%
≤30d 24 +16.1% +5.0% 58% 58% +6.9%
≤90d 24 +16.1% +5.0% 58% 58% +6.9%
all 24 +16.1% +5.0% 58% 58% +6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.0% 58% +6.9%
10% -5.0% 58% -3.3%
15% -14.2% 58% -12.6%
20% -22.6% 33% -21.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses14 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage16d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 +$1 +109%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 $0 +42%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 +$1 +90%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 +$2 +164%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $1 +$2 +206%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 +$2 +206%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +46%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1 +$1 +73%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +38%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +134%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +50%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +152%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +36%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 38 history records