Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:09:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50a2…6752 crypto 1765 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$136 (-6%) realized −$136 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate71%1525W / 610L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day24.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% +$23
weather 14% +$16
other 6% −$2
sports 4% −$3
world 1% $0
tech 0% +$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1055 -35.3% -41.5% 58% 8% -78.1%
≤30d 1116 -32.9% -39.3% 60% 9% -75.2%
≤90d 2135 -17.9% -25.7% 71% 28% -55.2%
all 2135 -17.9% -25.7% 71% 28% -55.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.7% 28% -55.2%
10% ← realistic here -32.8% 14% -59.5%
15% -39.3% 2% -63.4%
20% -45.3% 1% -67.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$136
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses1525 / 610
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)2135 / 1765
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day24.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 2135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Up 90¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Up 91¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Up 90¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 494 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - March 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$2 -168%
XRP Up or Down - March 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 24, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 28, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 4m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 18m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 18m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 36m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 36m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 47m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 59m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 59m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 59m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.24 · official $6.14 (match) · 3500 history records