Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:22:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50a3…4310 crypto 1715 markets active 2h ago coverage 72d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 72d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$454 (-3%) realized −$445 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate37%754W / 1301L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day34.5pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,827
7 days−$1,686
14 days−$1,686
30 days−$1,991
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$82
sports 20% −$186
other 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-34.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 427 -79.4% -81.3% 14% 14% -70.4%
≤30d 587 -65.4% -68.7% 22% 21% -52.6%
≤90d 2055 -27.1% -34.1% 37% 29% -21.5%
all 2055 -27.1% -34.1% 37% 29% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.1% 29% -21.5%
10% ← realistic here -40.4% 27% -29.0%
15% -46.1% 24% -35.9%
20% -51.4% 19% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$445
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses754 / 1301
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2055 / 1715
History coverage72d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day34.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2055 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Down 65¢ 48¢ $37 $28 −$9 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $28 −$28 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 4, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $38 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $15 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $6 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $38 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $15 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $6 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $15 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $6 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $6 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $6 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $15 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $6 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $15 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $6 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $6 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $6 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $6 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $38 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $15 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $6 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $6 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $6 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $15 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $6 32h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $6 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $6 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $15 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $6 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $6 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $15 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.04 · official $28.04 (match) · 3500 history records