Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:56:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50a6…144b crypto 369 markets active 8h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (102 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$133 (-8%) realized −$135 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%144W / 224L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day101.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$125
14 days−$144
30 days−$144
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$142
other 2% +$5
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (102 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 346 -13.4% -21.6% 39% 37% -16.0%
≤30d 368 -14.1% -22.3% 39% 37% -16.7%
≤90d 368 -14.1% -22.3% 39% 37% -16.7%
all 368 -14.1% -22.3% 39% 37% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover101.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.3% 37% -16.7%
10% ← realistic here -29.7% 35% -24.7%
15% -36.5% 33% -32.0%
20% -42.7% 30% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$135
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses144 / 224
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)368 / 369
History coverage7d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day101.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 368 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 192 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 +$8 +70%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$3 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +150%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$4 -59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +117%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +133%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $11 11h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 28h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $4 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.46 · official $13.46 (match) · 877 history records