Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:25:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50a7…6713 other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 177d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$458 (-21%) realized −$445 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%12W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days+$31
14 days+$31
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$447
sports 32% +$33
world 2% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +49.4% +35.1% 52% 52% -0.7%
≤30d 21 +49.4% +35.1% 52% 52% -0.7%
≤90d 21 +49.4% +35.1% 52% 52% -0.7%
all 35 +1.5% -8.2% 34% 34% -25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 34% -25.9%
10% -17.0% 31% -33.0%
15% -25.0% 31% -39.5%
20% -32.3% 29% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 61% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$34 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$445
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses12 / 23
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage177d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Over 46¢ 40¢ $100 $87 −$13 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $121 +$17 +14%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +46%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$22 -22%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $45 −$44 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $61 −$32 -53%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$13 +84%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 +$38 +249%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +103%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $7 +$6 +88%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 +$8 +76%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $29 −$25 -86%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $11 −$7 -63%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$18 +873%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $14 +$15 +104%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$10 +188%
Rangers vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5 Dec 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $77 −$29 -38%
Will Nigeria vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Dec 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Comoros win on 2025-12-26? Dec 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Cameroon vs. Gabon end in a draw? Dec 24 $131 −$93 -71%
Will Cameroon win on 2025-12-24? Dec 24 $258 −$25 -10%
Will Gabon win on 2025-12-24? Dec 24 $145 −$115 -80%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2025-12-24? Dec 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mozambique win on 2025-12-24? Dec 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Burkina Faso win on 2025-12-24? Dec 24 $320 −$196 -61%
Will Equatorial Guinea win on 2025-12-24? Dec 24 $105 −$30 -29%
Will Burkina Faso vs. Equatorial Guinea end in a draw? Dec 24 $130 −$4 -3%
Will Tunisia win on 2025-12-23? Dec 23 $140 +$97 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 45¢ $40 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $44 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $138 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $121 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $213 15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $102 17h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 20h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 21h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 39¢ $77 22h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 23h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 40h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 21¢ $29 40h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 41h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 41h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $4 41h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 41h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 42h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 42h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 42h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 97¢ $28 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $54 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 99¢ $10 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 99¢ $13 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.96 · official $86.96 (match) · 94 history records