Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:14:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
50 0x50a8…24ff sports 159 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$27 (+6%) realized +$29 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate29%45W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day37.1pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$19
14 days+$19
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$21
world 1% −$2
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 156 +12.6% +1.9% 29% 26% -5.5%
≤30d 156 +12.6% +1.9% 29% 26% -5.5%
≤90d 156 +12.6% +1.9% 29% 26% -5.5%
all 156 +12.6% +1.9% 29% 26% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.9% 26% -5.5%
10% ← realistic here -7.9% 24% -14.5%
15% -16.8% 23% -22.8%
20% -24.9% 23% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×2.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$29
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses45 / 111
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions3
Markets (closed)156 / 159
History coverage8d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day37.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Under 48¢ 50¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 51¢ 52¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 53¢ 3¢ $3 $0 −$2 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 -11%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $3 $0 -6%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 15 $2 $0 -10%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $2 $0 -6%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $3 $0 -8%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $2 $0 -7%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 -9%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 -6%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $6 −$3 -56%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $3 +$2 +82%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $3 +$27 +895%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 -7%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3 $0 -7%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1 +$6 +976%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $8 +$5 +64%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $3 +$2 +78%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 -8%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $6 −$3 -48%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $3 +$2 +96%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 171.5 Jun 14 $3 $0 -8%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 14 $2 $0 -2%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $5 −$3 -58%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $11 +$2 +17%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $3 +$3 +118%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $4 −$2 -53%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $3 +$2 +84%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $12 −$1 -10%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 $0 -7%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 $0 -6%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $2 $0 -17%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $3 $0 -6%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $3 $0 -7%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$3 -57%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $5 −$2 -45%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $4 −$1 -29%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $3 +$9 +315%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $3 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 39¢ $2 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 42¢ $2 1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs SELL Solary 48¢ $2 4h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 45¢ $2 4h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Solary 52¢ $3 4h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 53¢ $3 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $3 4h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 19¢ $2 5h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 20¢ $2 5h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Spain 21¢ $2 5h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 21¢ $2 5h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner SELL Solary 55¢ $3 5h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Solary 58¢ $3 5h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) SELL Natus Vincere 36¢ $2 6h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 37¢ $2 6h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 35¢ $3 6h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 27¢ $2 6h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $2 6h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 SELL Over 48¢ $2 6h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 49¢ $2 6h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 27¢ $3 17h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 SELL Over 38¢ $2 17h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $2 17h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 37¢ $3 18h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $3 18h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $3 18h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 10¢ $1 18h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 10¢ $0 18h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 10¢ $0 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.70 · official $5.70 (match) · 381 history records