Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:43:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50a8…241f other 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 607d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$46 (-1%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate25%14W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 80% −$11
other 13% −$21
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
sports 2% −$15
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -6.0% -14.9% 18% 0% -13.0%
≤90d 45 -9.0% -17.6% 22% 2% -12.3%
all 55 -7.4% -16.2% 25% 2% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 2% -10.3%
10% -24.2% 2% -18.9%
15% -31.6% 2% -26.7%
20% -38.3% 2% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

607d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses14 / 41
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage607d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $8 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $7 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $7 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $6 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? Jun 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 18 $41 $0 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers May 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $44 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $45 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $46 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $45 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 5? May 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $49 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $50 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $46 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $48 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 01 $49 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 30 $50 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $49 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 21 $46 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $48 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 20 $47 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $49 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $50 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $14 $0 +0%
Oilers vs. Utah Apr 08 $8 +$7 +89%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $17 +$2 +10%
Sabres vs. Senators Apr 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 27? Mar 27 $23 $0 +1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of February? Mar 05 $44 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 09 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Oct 08 $23 $0 +2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $12 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $6 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $8 3d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $8 3d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 5d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 5d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $7 6d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $7 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $6 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $6 6d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 14d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 14d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 16d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 20d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 23d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? BUY No 100¢ $9 24d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $19 25d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $41 28d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $41 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.14 · official $6.14 (match) · 271 history records