Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:35:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
50 0x50a8…b615 crypto 191 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,710 (+16%) realized +$3,710 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%111W / 80L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day14.8pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$782
7 days+$1,382
14 days+$3,237
30 days+$3,227
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$2,109
sports 9% +$1,119
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 -3.4% -12.6% 53% 53% +0.9%
≤30d 191 +6.0% -4.1% 58% 58% +3.2%
≤90d 191 +6.0% -4.1% 58% 58% +3.2%
all 191 +6.0% -4.1% 58% 58% +3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 58% +3.2%
10% -13.3% 58% -6.7%
15% -21.6% 58% -15.7%
20% -29.3% 58% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$110 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,710
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses111 / 80
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions0
Markets (closed)191 / 191
History coverage14d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day14.8
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 191 Trades
no open positions (79 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 18 $103 +$90 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 18 $206 −$200 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$79 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$81 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$77 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $206 +$171 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$85 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $206 +$156 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$82 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$86 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$80 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$91 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $206 +$153 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$80 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$79 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$85 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$88 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$86 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$90 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $206 +$166 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$82 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$92 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$83 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$84 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$81 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $206 −$199 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $206 +$164 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $103 +$82 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 32h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 332 history records