Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:21:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
50 0x50a9…dcf5 weather 301 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$67 (+3%) realized +$78 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR73%break-even
Win rate74%206W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day21.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$20
14 days+$58
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +73%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 110 +8.0% -2.3% 75% 74% -7.2%
≤30d 277 +5.2% -4.8% 74% 73% -6.8%
≤90d 277 +5.2% -4.8% 74% 73% -6.8%
all 277 +5.2% -4.8% 74% 73% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.8% 73% -6.8%
10% ← realistic here -14.0% 61% -15.8%
15% -22.3% 44% -23.9%
20% -29.9% 21% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$152
Realized+$78
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses206 / 71
Open positions24
Markets (closed)277 / 301
History coverage19d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day21.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 277 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 18? No 64¢ 100¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+55%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 19? No 54¢ 52¢ $15 $15 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 19? No 84¢ 85¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 19? No 75¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 19? No 67¢ 80¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 18? No 84¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 18? No 91¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 19? No 87¢ 94¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 19? No 80¢ 79¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 20? No 64¢ 66¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 19? No 65¢ 65¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 20? No 75¢ 74¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? No 57¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 19? No 69¢ 63¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20? No 65¢ 63¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? No 69¢ 62¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 20? No 50¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? No 71¢ 70¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 19? No 71¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? No 59¢ 51¢ $5 $5 −$1 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 19? No 81¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 19? No 69¢ 64¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? No 64¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 18? No 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 71 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $11 +$3 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$3 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $11 +$3 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$5 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $11 +$5 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 17? Jun 18 $5 +$3 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 18 $5 +$3 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +41%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 18 $5 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $11 +$5 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$8 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$5 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? Jun 17 $16 −$15 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 17 $6 +$2 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$4 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$8 +76%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 17? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? Jun 16 $11 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $11 +$8 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $5 +$3 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +54%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +78%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 15 $11 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$2 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$2 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 19? BUY No 65¢ $5 50m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 20? BUY No 75¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 71¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20? BUY No 65¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 20? BUY No 50¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? BUY No 57¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 19? BUY No 72¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 52¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 19? BUY No 69¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 19? BUY No 78¢ $6 8h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 20? BUY No 64¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 67¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 19? BUY No 87¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 80¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 56¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 64¢ $5 18h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 54¢ $5 18h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 74¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 58¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 19? BUY No 81¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? BUY No 59¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? BUY No 65¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 19? BUY No 71¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 82¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 19? BUY No 80¢ $6 23h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 72¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 69¢ $6 25h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 84¢ $5 28h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 65¢ $5 28h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 88¢ $5 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.48 · official $152.45 (match) · 619 history records