Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:39:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
50 0x50ab…144b other 177 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$368 (+6%) realized +$364 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate32%56W / 119L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$187
7 days+$564
14 days+$431
30 days+$214
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$167
other 30% −$412
sports 17% +$671
world 1% +$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 +12.1% +1.5% 40% 39% +5.5%
≤30d 128 +4.5% -5.4% 34% 33% -5.4%
≤90d 175 +7.2% -3.0% 32% 31% -6.8%
all 175 +7.2% -3.0% 32% 31% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 31% -6.8%
10% -12.3% 31% -15.7%
15% -20.7% 29% -23.8%
20% -28.5% 28% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$27 · ×2.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$364
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses56 / 119
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)175 / 177
History coverage42d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 175 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 109 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$107 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $310 +$283 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $308 −$300 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $205 +$215 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $209 −$100 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $62 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -96%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $145 +$160 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $63 −$60 -96%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $32 −$31 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $93 +$78 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $63 −$40 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$24 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$28 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $63 −$55 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$26 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$49 +235%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$8 -27%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$37 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -95%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$22 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 +$68 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$38 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 +$126 +408%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$13 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$33 +107%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $207 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $594 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $310 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $247 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $38 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $16 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $306 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $73 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.47 · official $44.47 (match) · 303 history records