Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:45:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50ab…15a0 sports 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$94 (+9%) realized +$101 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%14W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days+$65
14 days+$72
30 days+$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$27
other 20% +$85
world 5% −$56
politics 1% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -25.4% -32.5% 40% 40% +2.8%
≤30d 39 -23.3% -30.6% 36% 36% -2.2%
≤90d 39 -23.3% -30.6% 36% 36% -2.2%
all 39 -23.3% -30.6% 36% 36% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.6% 36% -2.2%
10% -37.3% 36% -11.6%
15% -43.3% 36% -20.1%
20% -48.9% 33% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$17 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized+$101
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses14 / 25
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions4
Markets (closed)39 / 43
History coverage13d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $84 $83 −$1 (-2%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $50 $47 −$4 (-8%)
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 +$2 +38%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $10 +$9 +89%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$9 +92%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $10 +$11 +104%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $25 +$18 +71%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 24 $15 +$8 +55%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $26 +$30 +116%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: France (-5.5) Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $15 +$12 +75%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $74 +$44 +59%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $78 +$128 +164%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $16 +$54 +339%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $26 +$24 +95%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $124 +$68 +55%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 +$73 +236%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 19¢ $52 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $87 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $21 16h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 36¢ $10 16h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 16h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $7 41h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 43h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 48¢ $10 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 52¢ $10 2d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $44 2d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $24 2d
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $55 2d
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $26 2d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 57¢ $25 2d
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) BUY Colombia 17¢ $10 3d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $10 3d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 22¢ $10 3d
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $10 3d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $20 3d
Spread: France (-5.5) BUY France 9¢ $5 4d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $15 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $74 5d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $78 5d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $21 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.46 · official $148.46 (match) · 82 history records