Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:40:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50ad…2af8 crypto 174 markets active 0h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-1%) realized −$24 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate38%63W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$63
14 days−$77
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$53
other 7% −$38
culture 2% +$22
sports 1% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 121 -5.2% -14.3% 32% 13% -15.1%
≤30d 168 -7.3% -16.1% 38% 20% -13.4%
≤90d 168 -7.3% -16.1% 38% 20% -13.4%
all 168 -7.3% -16.1% 38% 20% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 20% -13.4%
10% -24.2% 16% -21.7%
15% -31.5% 14% -29.3%
20% -38.2% 11% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses63 / 105
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)168 / 174
History coverage101d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+21%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Down 70¢ 80¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -30%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$4 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$4 +28%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$18 +344%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $23 +$10 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$4 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET Jun 14 $17 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $0 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $6 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $7 11m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AN BUY 7¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $6 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.48 · official $68.60 · 686 history records