Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:19:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
50 0x50ad…4e71 other 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 38L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$427per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$7
other 36% −$6
tech 16% −$3
economics 5% $0
world 1% $0
sports 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 38 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 38 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$806) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage75d
Avg bet$427
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 17 $104 $0 -0%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $48 $0 -0%
Will Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa Pessoa be the top goalscorer at t Jun 17 $32 $0 -0%
Will Databricks’ market cap be $250B or greater at market close on IPO Jun 12 $1,269 −$1 -0%
Will Databricks’ market cap be between $175B and $200B at market close Jun 12 $52 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $1,236 −$1 -0%
Will Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 American League Championship Seri Jun 12 $1,187 −$1 -0%
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 12 $21 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $47 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,203 −$2 -0%
Will Tomáš Macháč be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 11 $1,208 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? Jun 11 $67 $0 -0%
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $60 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $1,279 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $1,209 −$1 -0%
Will Breno Corã win Big Brother Brasil 26? Apr 19 $66 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $29 $0 -0%
Will Vicky Dávila win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential Apr 17 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 17 $26 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $799 −$1 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 16 $764 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $801 −$1 -0%
Will St. Louis City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 15 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Progressive Party (PP) win the 2026 South Korean local electi Apr 15 $758 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 15 $806 −$1 -0%
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Apr 14 $34 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $828 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $783 $0 +0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $816 −$1 -0%
Tom Holland announced as next James Bond? Apr 07 $133 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $43 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 07 $27 $0 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 03 $149 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? Apr 03 $23 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 03 $63 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $104 1h
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $86 1h
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $48 1h
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $18 1h
Will Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa Pessoa be the top goalscorer at t SELL No 100¢ $16 2h
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $20 2h
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $28 2h
Will Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa Pessoa be the top goalscorer at t SELL No 100¢ $16 2h
Will Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa Pessoa be the top goalscorer at t BUY No 100¢ $32 2h
Will Databricks’ market cap be $250B or greater at market close on IPO SELL No 100¢ $1,267 4d
Will Databricks’ market cap be between $175B and $200B at market close SELL No 100¢ $52 4d
Will Databricks’ market cap be between $175B and $200B at market close BUY No 100¢ $15 4d
Will Databricks’ market cap be $250B or greater at market close on IPO BUY No 100¢ $1,233 4d
Will Databricks’ market cap be between $175B and $200B at market close BUY No 100¢ $21 4d
Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,235 4d
Will Databricks’ market cap be between $175B and $200B at market close BUY No 100¢ $15 4d
Will Databricks’ market cap be $250B or greater at market close on IPO BUY No 100¢ $36 4d
Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,210 4d
Will Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 American League Championship Seri SELL No 100¢ $866 4d
Will Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 American League Championship Seri SELL No 100¢ $319 4d
Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 4d
Will Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 American League Championship Seri BUY No 100¢ $1,187 4d
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin SELL No 100¢ $21 5d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $47 5d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 5d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 5d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,201 5d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 5d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,185 5d
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin BUY No 100¢ $21 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 121 history records