Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:02:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50b0…22da world 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 533d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$22 (-1%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate26%10W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$5
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% −$9
other 18% −$3
sports 1% −$10
politics 0% +$1
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 14% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 24 -0.4% -9.9% 21% 4% -9.9%
≤90d 31 -4.1% -13.2% 26% 3% -9.9%
all 38 -13.4% -21.7% 26% 8% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 8% -10.4%
10% -29.2% 5% -19.0%
15% -36.0% 5% -26.8%
20% -42.3% 3% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

533d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses10 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage533d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $33 −$1 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $72 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $36 $0 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $19 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $67 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 18 $72 +$2 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $37 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $37 −$4 -11%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $80 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $35 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $171 −$2 -1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $3 $0 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $38 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $34 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $8 $0 -3%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $35 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $39 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $38 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $7 $0 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 27 $317 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $39 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $39 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 23 $35 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $345 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 13 $309 −$1 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 12 $122 $0 +0%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 11 $19 −$3 -17%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the New York Giants? Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
UL Monroe vs. Texas State Mar 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Jacksonville vs. Central Arkansas Feb 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump appeal his hush money conviction? Jan 25 $2 +$1 +74%
Will Jeremiah Smith score a touchdown AND Quinn Ewers NOT throw an int Jan 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C? Jan 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Oilers vs. Bruins Jan 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? Jan 07 $10 +$4 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $1 13m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $32 13m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 54¢ $33 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $36 7h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $36 7h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $36 11h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $36 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 34h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $17 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $17 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $17 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $18 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $16 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $33 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $14 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $11 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $37 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $23 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $11 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $33 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 83¢ $12 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 83¢ $22 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $37 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $40 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $40 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.26 · official $0.00 (match) · 140 history records