Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:35:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

50
0x50b0…7dc5
weather · 1514 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$448 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$293 · open −$154
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$262
Realized−$293
Unrealized−$154
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses1372 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions45
Markets (closed)1469 / 1514
Avg bet$35
Trades / day19.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 45 History 1469 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$47
7 days−$54
14 days−$54
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 44¢ 25¢ $44 $25 −$19 (-43%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? No 68¢ 100¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+47%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? No 66¢ 100¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+52%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? No 66¢ 100¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+52%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 12? No 74¢ 100¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+35%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C or higher on June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 12? Yes 40¢ 100¢ $4 $10 +$6 (+150%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? No 64¢ 63¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? No 64¢ 60¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? No 64¢ 54¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? No 65¢ 52¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? Yes 53¢ 73¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+38%)
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 2¢ $29 $6 −$23 (-80%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? Yes 41¢ 49¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Yes 37¢ 49¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Yes 5¢ 9¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 12 $11 +$4 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $4 +$6 +185%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$6 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$7 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$6 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$6 +129%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$6 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$9 +173%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $11 +$4 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $11 +$4 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$5 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$9 +151%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 10? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 10? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 10? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 83°F or below on June 10? Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 96°F or higher on June 10? Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 10? Jun 11 $10 +$5 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 70% +$17
world 22% −$623
other 4% +$135
finance 2% +$14
politics 1% +$5
sports 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 64¢ $10 35m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 37¢ $6 35m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 34¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $8 5h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? BUY No 64¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY No 64¢ $10 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -23.2% -30.5% 56% 18% -19.0%
≤30d 305 -6.3% -15.2% 83% 16% -11.1%
≤90d 1419 -1.8% -11.1% 93% 4% -11.5%
all 1469 -1.7% -11.0% 93% 4% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover19.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 4% -10.0%
10% -19.6% 3% -18.6%
15% -27.3% 3% -26.5%
20% -34.5% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $262.24 · official $262.25 (match) · 3500 history records