trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +1.5% | -8.2% | 33% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 10 | -3.3% | -12.5% | 40% | 20% | -26.4% |
| ≤90d | 16 | -33.0% | -39.4% | 31% | 12% | -44.6% |
| all | 16 | -33.0% | -39.4% | 31% | 12% | -44.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -39.4% | 12% | -44.6% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -45.2% | 6% | -49.9% |
| 15% | -50.5% | 6% | -54.7% |
| 20% | -55.4% | 0% | -59.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 99¢ | 99¢ | $2,000 | $1,999 | −$1 (-0%) |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? | No | 89¢ | 96¢ | $1,780 | $1,924 | +$144 (+8%) |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? | No | 84¢ | 84¢ | $700 | $696 | −$4 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 24 | $2,514 | −$56 | -2% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 23 | $1,504 | −$25 | -2% |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? | Jun 23 | $1,003 | +$84 | +8% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 15 | $8,960 | −$3,116 | -35% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | Jun 14 | $1,000 | −$202 | -20% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | Jun 14 | $1,200 | −$9 | -1% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Jun 14 | $6,000 | +$152 | +2% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | Jun 14 | $356 | +$155 | +43% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 07 | $7,660 | −$3,385 | -44% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $2,169 | +$353 | +16% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | May 17 | $1,736 | −$1,680 | -97% |
| Will Moldova be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? | May 17 | $501 | +$23 | +5% |
| Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $3,273 | −$3,262 | -100% |
| Will Finland be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $2,005 | −$2,000 | -100% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | May 02 | $1,000 | −$1,000 | -100% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | May 02 | $3,000 | −$3,000 | -100% |