Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:28:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50b3…d608 sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$4 (-6%) realized −$5 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$29
sports 36% +$23
crypto 12% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +18.8% +7.5% 33% 33% -20.0%
≤30d 6 +18.8% +7.5% 33% 33% -20.0%
≤90d 6 +18.8% +7.5% 33% 33% -20.0%
all 6 +18.8% +7.5% 33% 33% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.5% 33% -20.0%
10% -2.8% 33% -27.7%
15% -12.2% 33% -34.7%
20% -20.8% 33% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$8 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)6 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 80¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Sean OMalley 79¢ 78¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Yes 69¢ 64¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Yes 79¢ 68¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Steve Garcia 41¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ecuador to win the second half? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $5 +$4 +88%
Ecuador to win the second half? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$21 +417%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$19 -92%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 41¢ $3 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 79¢ $2 1h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 1h
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 79¢ $2 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $5 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 1h
Ecuador to win the second half? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 3h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $27 3h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.56 · official $10.56 (match) · 15 history records