Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:39:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

50
0x50b6…469b
crypto · 20 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$65 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$78 · open −$31
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$32
Realized−$78
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses4 / 12
Open positions4
Markets (closed)16 / 20
History coverage5d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day42.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 4 History 16 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$139
7 days−$78
14 days−$78
30 days−$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? No 5¢ 5¢ $19 $17 −$2 (-8%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $22 $15 −$7 (-33%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? No 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-99%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? No 11¢ 0¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? No 12¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? No 37¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? No 5¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? No 10¢ 0¢ $71 $0 −$71 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 12 $7 −$2 -22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $44 −$42 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$3 -56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $127 −$50 -39%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $45 −$42 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $308 +$50 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $70 −$18 -25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $46 −$43 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $131 +$85 +65%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $6 +$10 +148%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $66 −$63 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $32 −$9 -28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $178 +$112 +63%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $32 −$30 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $13 −$10 -76%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $74 −$24 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$107
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 4m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 28m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? BUY No 5¢ $5 29m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? BUY No 5¢ $15 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 9¢ $11 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? SELL No 48¢ $96 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 17¢ $4 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 17¢ $21 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 30¢ $21 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? SELL No 54¢ $77 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 34¢ $21 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 34¢ $31 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 36¢ $151 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 17¢ $79 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 28¢ $80 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 9¢ $22 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? BUY No 4¢ $11 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 4h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL No 1¢ $6 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? SELL No 2¢ $5 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? BUY No 27¢ $1 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? BUY No 27¢ $101 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? BUY No 10¢ $12 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? BUY No 10¢ $11 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? BUY No 10¢ $28 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+39.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +53.9% +39.2% 25% 25% -21.3%
≤30d 16 +53.9% +39.2% 25% 25% -21.3%
≤90d 16 +53.9% +39.2% 25% 25% -21.3%
all 16 +53.9% +39.2% 25% 25% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover42.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +39.2% 25% -21.3%
10% ← realistic here +25.9% 25% -28.8%
15% +13.7% 25% -35.7%
20% +2.6% 25% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.35 · official $32.35 (match) · 216 history records