Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:04:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50b6…9a31 crypto 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%9W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$57
14 days−$66
30 days−$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$49
other 23% −$17
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-30.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -20.0% -27.6% 50% 44% -36.6%
≤30d 19 -23.1% -30.5% 47% 42% -39.3%
≤90d 19 -23.1% -30.5% 47% 42% -39.3%
all 19 -23.1% -30.5% 47% 42% -39.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.5% 42% -39.3%
10% -37.1% 32% -45.1%
15% -43.2% 32% -50.4%
20% -48.8% 21% -55.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$11 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses9 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage11d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $61 −$50 -81%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -93%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$13 +62%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$7 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$5 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$14 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +37%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $1 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +8%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $11 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $26 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $7 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $11 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $22 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $5 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $5 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $11 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 14h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 54¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 4d
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 62¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 38 history records