Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:12:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
50 0x50b6…9272 crypto 127 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 103d only
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$20,373 (+4%) realized +$16,898 · open +$3,475
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate82%76W / 17L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$4,334per market
Trades / day22.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$69,167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$171
7 days−$895
14 days−$955
30 days+$1,604
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$32,615
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)+23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -3.4% -12.6% 33% 0% -13.5%
≤30d 33 -1.2% -10.6% 76% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 92 +36.3% +23.4% 82% 13% -2.0%
all 93 +36.0% +23.0% 82% 13% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +23.0% 13% -2.0%
10% +11.3% 13% -11.4%
15% ← realistic here +0.5% 10% -20.0%
20% -9.4% 10% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$5,578) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +73% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
18.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$415 vs −$140 · ×2.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×13.28 per $1 lost it wins $13.28
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$69,167
Realized+$16,898
Unrealized+$3,475
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses76 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Open positions34
Markets (closed)93 / 127
History coverage103d ⚠
Avg bet$4,334
Trades / day22.1
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $3,915 $3,996 +$81 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? No 97¢ 100¢ $3,864 $3,994 +$130 (+3%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? No 93¢ 100¢ $3,730 $3,982 +$252 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 91¢ 100¢ $3,648 $3,982 +$334 (+9%)
Will Solana reach $100 in June? No 95¢ 99¢ $3,802 $3,974 +$172 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 90¢ 99¢ $3,602 $3,970 +$368 (+10%)
Will Solana reach $90 in June? No 91¢ 98¢ $3,649 $3,928 +$279 (+8%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 87¢ 98¢ $3,496 $3,924 +$428 (+12%)
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in June? No 92¢ 98¢ $3,700 $3,908 +$208 (+6%)
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? No 95¢ 100¢ $3,721 $3,885 +$164 (+4%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? No 96¢ 99¢ $3,617 $3,713 +$96 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 95¢ 100¢ $3,525 $3,681 +$155 (+4%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? No 93¢ 99¢ $2,712 $2,900 +$188 (+7%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? No 92¢ 100¢ $2,607 $2,814 +$207 (+8%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? No 90¢ 99¢ $2,516 $2,763 +$247 (+10%)
Will Solana reach $120 in June? No 97¢ 100¢ $2,171 $2,222 +$51 (+2%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $2,152 $2,193 +$41 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 97¢ 100¢ $1,940 $1,993 +$53 (+3%)
Will Solana reach $130 in June? No 97¢ 100¢ $1,433 $1,469 +$36 (+3%)
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? No 94¢ 95¢ $1,200 $1,211 +$11 (+1%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $1,072 $1,092 +$20 (+2%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $1,010 $1,024 +$14 (+1%)
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $747 $759 +$13 (+2%)
Will XRP reach $1.40 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $634 $649 +$15 (+2%)
Will Solana reach $110 in June? No 96¢ 100¢ $479 $496 +$16 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 24 $4,456 +$51 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Jun 24 $6,997 −$222 -3%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? Jun 21 $8,740 −$724 -8%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 17 $6,952 −$60 -1%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in May? Jun 02 $850 +$27 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 02 $950 +$50 +5%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? Jun 02 $3,863 +$137 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 02 $977 +$23 +2%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 02 $7,853 −$8 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in May? Jun 02 $6,255 −$186 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 02 $3,128 +$271 +9%
Will Solana reach $160 in May? Jun 02 $1,960 +$40 +2%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $82 −$82 -100%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? Jun 02 $3,718 +$282 +8%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $3,866 +$134 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? Jun 02 $13,223 +$79 +1%
Will Solana dip to $20 in May? Jun 02 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? Jun 02 $1,220 +$30 +2%
Will Solana reach $150 in May? Jun 02 $974 +$26 +3%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? Jun 02 $3,840 +$160 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $4,069 +$167 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $3,845 +$155 +4%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 02 $1,740 +$76 +4%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 02 $2,903 −$59 -2%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 02 $169 +$6 +3%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? Jun 02 $3,866 +$134 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $2,311 +$91 +4%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 02 $1,711 +$47 +3%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 02 $22,658 +$418 +2%
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? Jun 02 $9,029 +$440 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $8,034 +$162 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? Jun 02 $962 +$38 +4%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? May 29 $916 −$100 -11%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 24 $4,039 −$39 -1%
Will Solana reach $120 in April? May 02 $2,843 +$157 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 02 $5,578 +$176 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? May 02 $940 +$60 +6%
Will Solana reach $130 in April? May 02 $2,879 +$122 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? May 02 $7,332 +$309 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? May 02 $970 +$30 +3%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in April? May 02 $6,783 +$344 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? May 02 $2,890 +$110 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 02 $4,984 +$15 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 02 $1,080 +$76 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 02 $3,120 −$97 -3%
Will Solana reach $160 in April? May 02 $2,823 +$73 +3%
Will Solana reach $140 in April? May 02 $975 +$25 +3%
Will Solana reach $150 in April? May 02 $1,350 +$37 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 02 $4,244 +$129 +3%
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? May 02 $3,914 −$31 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? BUY No 94¢ $1,200 38m
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 94¢ $28 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 89¢ $19 14h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 90¢ $19 14h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 87¢ $81 14h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 14h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 14h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $79 15h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $100 15h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $76 19h
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in June? BUY No 98¢ $1 26h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $1,954 26h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? BUY No 91¢ $1,814 26h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? BUY No 95¢ $1,902 26h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 27h
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in June? BUY No 98¢ $7 27h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 27h
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 27h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 27h
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 27h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $83 27h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $27 27h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 27h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 27h
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $36 42h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 24¢ $14 46h
Will XRP reach $1.40 in June? BUY No 98¢ $397 47h
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? BUY No 98¢ $990 47h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY No 75¢ $485 47h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY No 75¢ $1 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69,166.56 · official $69,166.56 (match) · 3500 history records