Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:22:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
50 0x50b6…836b crypto 144 markets active 1h ago coverage 645d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$90 (-1%) realized −$90 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate93%127W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% +$19
politics 31% −$108
other 1% −$3
tech 0% +$3
economics 0% +$2
world 0% +$2
sports 0% −$2
weather 0% −$4
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 10 +2.1% -7.6% 100% 10% -9.4%
≤90d 32 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 3% -9.4%
all 137 -1.1% -10.5% 93% 14% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 14% -10.0%
10% -19.1% 9% -18.7%
15% -26.9% 6% -26.5%
20% -34.0% 3% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$14 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

645d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$90
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses127 / 10
Open positions7
Markets (closed)137 / 144
History coverage645d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? No 97¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 12 $111 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? Jun 01 $3 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +15%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 01 $3 $0 +3%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in May? Jun 01 $3 $0 +2%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $300 in May? Jun 01 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 20? May 29 $154 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 18? May 19 $154 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 15? May 16 $151 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? May 08 $162 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 03 $3 $0 +8%
Will NVIDIA dip to $120 in April? May 02 $3 $0 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 30 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $152 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 25? Apr 26 $157 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 18? Apr 24 $162 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 16? Apr 17 $158 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 13? Apr 15 $162 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on April 11? Apr 12 $162 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? Apr 10 $170 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 7? Apr 08 $167 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on April 3? Apr 06 $161 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $165 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 01 $2 $0 +3%
Will Google have the best AI model for coding on March 31? Apr 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 29? Mar 29 $159 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 25? Mar 27 $158 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $157 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on March 21? Mar 22 $166 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 18? Mar 20 $166 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $164 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on March 12? Mar 15 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 9? Mar 11 $163 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on March 7? Mar 09 $159 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on March 6? Mar 06 $170 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,400 on March 3? Mar 05 $164 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 1? Mar 02 $166 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 27? Feb 28 $162 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 23? Feb 24 $167 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 2 Feb 21 $164 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on February 16? Feb 17 $163 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 14? Feb 15 $162 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 12? Feb 13 $161 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 10? Feb 11 $166 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 8? Feb 09 $159 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on February 6 Feb 07 $161 $0 +0%
Zama FDV above $4B one day after launch? Feb 04 $6 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on February 3? Feb 04 $151 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3,300 on February 1? Feb 02 $149 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 1h
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? BUY No 99¢ $6 1h
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $7 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $115 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $111 6d
Will Solana reach $130 in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 87¢ $2 23d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in May? BUY No 98¢ $3 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $154 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $154 27d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $151 31d
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $300 in May? BUY No 99¢ $4 38d
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? BUY No 97¢ $3 38d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $5 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $162 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 27? BUY No 100¢ $152 49d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $157 51d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $3 51d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 18? BUY No 100¢ $162 58d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $158 60d
Will NVIDIA dip to $120 in April? BUY No 99¢ $3 63d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 93¢ $3 63d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $5 63d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $162 63d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on April 11? BUY No 100¢ $162 65d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $170 67d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $167 69d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $161 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.24 · official $33.24 (match) · 322 history records