Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:46:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50b9…4467 crypto 247 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,805 (-6%) realized −$3,688 · open −$117
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%92W / 142L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$275per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$210est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$3,261now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,266
7 days−$4,173
14 days−$2,526
30 days−$8,056
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$6,860
crypto 26% −$763
sports 17% +$3,653
other 16% +$1,699
politics 1% −$129
economics 1% −$665
tech 1% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +61.6% +46.2% 49% 46% -29.8%
≤30d 127 -18.1% -25.9% 29% 28% -28.9%
≤90d 234 +1.1% -8.6% 39% 36% -14.5%
all 234 +1.1% -8.6% 39% 36% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 36% -14.5%
10% -17.3% 35% -22.7%
15% -25.3% 32% -30.2%
20% -32.6% 31% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$243 vs −$180 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$3,261
Realized−$3,688
Unrealized−$117
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses92 / 142
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$210
Open positions12
Markets (closed)234 / 247
History coverage58d
Avg bet$275
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 234 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 46¢ 44¢ $2,351 $2,296 −$55 (-2%)
Will Selena Gomez be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids? No 43¢ 44¢ $208 $215 +$7 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 10¢ 10¢ $204 $214 +$10 (+5%)
Set Handicap: Humbert (-1.5) vs Medjedovic (+1.5) Humbert 33¢ 26¢ $214 $166 −$49 (-23%)
Will Amanda Anisimova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $172 $157 −$15 (-9%)
Will Elena Rybakina be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $116 $107 −$8 (-7%)
Will Markéta Vondroušová be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $30 $41 +$11 (+37%)
Will Karolína Muchová be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $35 $28 −$7 (-21%)
Will Emma Raducanu be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $12 $17 +$5 (+39%)
Will Jasmine Paolini be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $17 $7 −$10 (-56%)
Will Belinda Bencic be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-9%)
Will Liudmila Samsonova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $11 $6 −$5 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Asuncion 2 (Doubles): Ribeiro/Zeballos vs Casanova/Taverna Jun 18 $576 +$623 +108%
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 18 $244 +$866 +354%
Set 2 Winner: Medjedovic vs Humbert Jun 18 $583 −$581 -100%
Set Handicap: Rincon (-1.5) vs Gadamauri (+1.5) Jun 18 $247 −$247 -100%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $154 +$233 +152%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $25 −$24 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $113 −$110 -98%
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Mayar Sherif Jun 18 $509 +$657 +129%
Set Handicap: Ruggeri (-1.5) vs Sherif (+1.5) Jun 18 $17 +$2 +13%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $486 −$481 -99%
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 18 $161 −$161 -100%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 18 $216 −$213 -99%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $304 +$205 +67%
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka Jun 18 $153 +$416 +272%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $113 −$110 -98%
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the announcers say "Foul" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia Jun 18 $8 +$2 +21%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $254 +$301 +119%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $143 −$140 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $567 +$567 +100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $584 +$613 +105%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $63 −$62 -98%
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Jun 15 $371 −$151 -41%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $4,605 +$1,323 +29%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $153 +$382 +249%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $8,690 −$5,405 -62%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $122 −$120 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $312 +$742 +238%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $299 −$292 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $308 −$303 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $207 −$204 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $204 −$200 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $339 +$356 +105%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $3,353 −$3,146 -94%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $213 +$233 +109%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $207 +$209 +101%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $216 +$186 +86%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $98 +$9 +10%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $463 +$647 +140%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 11 $114 −$114 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $1,067 +$743 +70%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $109 −$106 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 06 $104 +$117 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 05 $52 +$60 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 05 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 05 $105 +$265 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 05 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 05 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 05 $105 +$90 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Markéta Vondroušová be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 31m
Will Selena Gomez be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids? BUY No 44¢ $5 1h
Will Selena Gomez be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids? BUY No 45¢ $188 1h
Asuncion 2 (Doubles): Ribeiro/Zeballos vs Casanova/Taverna SELL Ribeiro/Zeballos 100¢ $1,199 1h
Asuncion 2 (Doubles): Ribeiro/Zeballos vs Casanova/Taverna BUY Ribeiro/Zeballos 48¢ $576 3h
Will Karolína Muchová be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $24 4h
Set 2 Winner: Medjedovic vs Humbert BUY Medjedovic 52¢ $2 5h
Set 2 Winner: Medjedovic vs Humbert BUY Medjedovic 52¢ $5 5h
Set 2 Winner: Medjedovic vs Humbert BUY Medjedovic 52¢ $41 5h
Set 2 Winner: Medjedovic vs Humbert BUY Medjedovic 52¢ $13 5h
Set 2 Winner: Medjedovic vs Humbert BUY Medjedovic 52¢ $41 5h
Set 2 Winner: Medjedovic vs Humbert BUY Medjedovic 52¢ $105 5h
Set 2 Winner: Medjedovic vs Humbert BUY Medjedovic 52¢ $131 5h
Set 2 Winner: Medjedovic vs Humbert BUY Medjedovic 65¢ $16 5h
Set 2 Winner: Medjedovic vs Humbert BUY Medjedovic 63¢ $126 5h
Set 2 Winner: Medjedovic vs Humbert BUY Medjedovic 63¢ $101 5h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri BUY Daniel Rincon 22¢ $121 5h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri BUY Daniel Rincon 22¢ $67 5h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri BUY Daniel Rincon 22¢ $5 5h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri BUY Daniel Rincon 22¢ $1 5h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri BUY Daniel Rincon 22¢ $1 5h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri BUY Daniel Rincon 22¢ $47 5h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri BUY Daniel Rincon 24¢ $1 5h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri BUY Daniel Rincon 24¢ $1 5h
Set Handicap: Rincon (-1.5) vs Gadamauri (+1.5) BUY Rincon 22¢ $1 5h
Set Handicap: Rincon (-1.5) vs Gadamauri (+1.5) BUY Rincon 22¢ $14 5h
Set Handicap: Rincon (-1.5) vs Gadamauri (+1.5) BUY Rincon 22¢ $116 5h
Set Handicap: Rincon (-1.5) vs Gadamauri (+1.5) BUY Rincon 22¢ $1 5h
Set Handicap: Rincon (-1.5) vs Gadamauri (+1.5) BUY Rincon 22¢ $116 5h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen BUY Billy Harris 13¢ $51 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,260.89 · official $3,258.29 (match) · 865 history records