Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:02:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50bc…fdc6 crypto 966 markets active 0h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,862 (-13%) realized −$3,838 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate32%307W / 657L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day24.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$484
7 days−$484
14 days−$484
30 days−$969
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$5,685
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -24.8% -32.0% 38% 38% -52.0%
≤30d 139 -17.0% -24.9% 30% 30% -36.7%
≤90d 373 -15.6% -23.6% 32% 30% -30.7%
all 964 -13.4% -21.6% 32% 29% -30.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.6% 29% -30.1%
10% ← realistic here -29.1% 26% -36.7%
15% -36.0% 23% -42.9%
20% -42.3% 19% -48.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$20 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$3,838
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses307 / 657
Open positions2
Markets (closed)964 / 966
History coverage127d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day24.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 964 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Down 21¢ 8¢ $30 $11 −$19 (-65%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $46 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12AM ET Jun 20 $118 −$68 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $34 −$33 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 20 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$10 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$5 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $11 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $13 +$9 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 20 $12 +$8 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $84 −$80 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$70 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $63 −$10 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $67 +$21 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $58 −$55 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 18 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$34 +211%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$18 +341%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$20 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $49 −$46 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $42 −$40 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $7 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $32 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $51 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $31 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $42 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $31 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $47 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $41 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $34 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $25 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.56 · official $31.84 · 3282 history records